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Did you simulate network connectivity at all? Bitcoin is a semi-randomly connected network, where most of the connections are (I would guess) outbound connections from non-generating nodes who are sitting behind firewalls. With a typical node having 8 random connections, to different /16 networks, it seems to me it would be pretty tough to get tight-enough control over enough network connections to consistently win the "announce a new block" race.
Anybody know how to estimate what percentage of connections the cartel would have to control to only lose the announce-a-block race 15% of the time? It'll be way more than 15%....