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Transactions are confirmed when new blocks are accepted; that's the idea behind my 95%-finished 'monitorreceived' code. It will POST to a URL when new wallet transactions and blocks are accepted. The block information includes all transaction ids (and a link to the previous block).
As you note, you still have the issue of what to do if your code misses a POST. That shouldn't be a big issue, though, because you'll resynchronize the next time a block is found. Worst case, you'll ship to the customer 1 block (10 minutes) later than is optimal if your connection to bitcoind is lost.