624
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 25, 2014, 04:19:32 AM
|
They also gave us the solution: cash.
The new PBoC "clarification of the clarification" mentions cash too. But I cannot figure out exactly what they mean. As of April 24 , all Bitcoin trading platform has been fully recharge way to stop third-party payment . Most bank card remittance channels have been closed , however , are still allowed to bitcoin bank transfer and cash withdrawal services platform .
In the interviews emphasized the central bank , cash function must also be stopped.
截至4月24日,各比特币交易平台已全面停止第三方支付充值方式。银行卡转账汇款渠道大多数已经关闭,然而,仍有银行允许给比特币平台汇款和提现服务。
央行在约谈中强调,提现功能也必须停止。
|
|
|
625
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 25, 2014, 04:06:41 AM
|
Someone please tell me there are no new "deadlines" this time. I don't think i can handle that shit again.
There is a May 10th deadline: 某大型商业银行人士也向记者证实了央行的上述要求,并指出,在派员参加约谈之前,该行已经进行了全面排查,确认自身没有违规问题,但从约谈后央行提 供的帐户信息看,该银行有多个地区的分行违规开立了帐户。“违规的情况令人震惊,央行掌握的帐户信息比我们自己还清楚,央行的决心也比我们预想的要大得 多。”该人士表示。
Central bank asked all commercial banks and third-party payment agencies before May 10 , " Beijing Bitcoin International Summit" held to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction attitudes guide people away from Bitcoin transactions.
|
|
|
629
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 25, 2014, 03:41:35 AM
|
No [ teh Chinese ] don't matter at all. People think they do and therefore exchange rates with fiat are affected in the short term, but that is all.
When the price drops in China, arbitrage traders immediately buy cheap coins there, move them to Bitstamp/BTC-e/Bitfinex/etc, and sell them for the still higher price. That slows down the Chinese drop and pulls the price down in the west, until the prices about match (within some currency exchange rate, seems to be 6.30 CNY/USD these days).
|
|
|
631
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 25, 2014, 03:28:40 AM
|
Found this on the Chinese language thread: Beijing on April 25 morning news, Bitcoin Exchange Mt.Gox today on the official website announced that the Tokyo District Court has ordered the April 24, Mt.Gox formal insolvency proceedings and appointed a lawyer small 林信明 (Nobuaki Kobayashi) for the bankruptcy trustee.
Small 林信明 lawyer said he would Mt.Gox founder Mark Karpeles Bitcoin theft of responsibility in the investigation. In addition, the creditors' meeting will be held on July 23 this year.
Could this be the cause of the dump? Does not seem particularly earth-shaking...
|
|
|
633
|
Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: Payment day in China / 付款日在中国
|
on: April 25, 2014, 02:10:53 AM
|
And look likes you are eager to see price reaching a highe r point.
No. I try to predict the price. I am happy when I predict correctly. I don't care if it went up or down. [ G. T. ] 不,我试图预测价格。我很高兴,当我预测正确。我不在乎,如果它上升或下跌。
|
|
|
634
|
Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Payment day in China / 付款日在中国
|
on: April 25, 2014, 01:45:23 AM
|
[ Sorry for posting in English but I do not speak Chinese and do not trust Google Translate. ]
Is there a "standard" day of the month when salaries are paid in China? End of every month? Beginning of every month? Middle of every month?
The reason for asking is: perhaps more money enters the exchanges on certain days of the month than in others. That would cause the price of BTC to go up.
[ Google translation follows. I hope that it makes sense. ] [谷歌翻译如下。我希望这是有道理的。]
有一个月的工资时支付在中国的一个“标准”的一天?每月结束了吗?开始每月?每个月的中间?
究其原因,问的是:也许更多的资金进入交易所在每月的某几天比其他国家小。这将导致BTC的价格上去。
|
|
|
635
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 24, 2014, 11:27:14 PM
|
I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...
Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% ! And below current value is ... more than 50%.
I don't understand your notation, here is mineBasically, in the log-Brownian model the difference between successive values of Z(i) = log(P(i)) are independent random variables with probability distributions that are symmetric about zero. Therefore after any number n of steps the probability distribution of Z(i+n) will be symmstric about the starting value Z(i). That means Z(i+n) wil be less than Z(i) with 50% probability. Since log is monotonic, it preserves cumulative probabilities, therefore P(i+n) will be less than P(i) with 50% probability. What is wrong with this argument? (Strictly speaking, "Brownian" requires a normal distribution of increments with zero mean and fixed variance. In practice the variance varies slowly and the distributions have fatter tails than the norma; but by the law of large numbers they become near-normal for large n.)
|
|
|
637
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 24, 2014, 10:18:13 PM
|
I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is. At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT. There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins. What will that do to the market? If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time? Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.
IF they decide to sell the coins, I expect that they will divide them into manageable lots, and auction them through some auctioning house. I believe that would be the easiest way to get the best possible price for them. (The FBI will probably do the same with the SilkRoad coins, except that they will surely use the government auctioning services.) But that just pushes the question forward: what wiill the auction winners do with those coins?
|
|
|
638
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: April 24, 2014, 10:03:24 PM
|
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 25Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-04-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after) Huobi's predicted price: 3067 CNY Bitstamp's predicted price: 488 USD [ Plot legend ] Today's data point was not bad (S = 0.0049 W = 0.614), and above the previous trend line, but not by much (by 37 CNY). It seems still valid to use a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last six points, Apr/19--24. Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3138.67 and B = -12.01. (The older data points should have their weights reduced when fitting the trend, but the effect on the prediction would have been small.) The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.29 CNY/USD. It was 6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last five Slumber Times. Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-23, 21:47 UTC Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later) Huobi's predicted price: 3059 CNY Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3096 CNY Error: 37 CNY (~6 USD) Bitstamp's predicted price: 487 USD Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 491 USD Error: 4 USD NOTE: "I never think of the future. It comes soon enough." --Albert Einstein
|
|
|
639
|
Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: Why is the volume so low? 为什么是体积如此之低?
|
on: April 24, 2014, 09:49:18 PM
|
没有假期。 趋势有牛市、熊市、横盘,横盘期间成交量低,历史一贯如此。如果庄家愿意搞点行情,成交量自然上去。
谢谢! Don't believe the volume,especially the volume of Okcoin or huobi It’s believe that they have participated in trade privately ,So that they can push up volume to be “the largest exchange” Just think it over, in such a situation(government's objections,Price dropped down so much),It's impossible to reach such a high trading volume. It's obviously the market should be smaller than 2013/11-2013/12‘s because many people dropped out and won't come back.
Maybe. But BTC-China lost almost all its volume after 2013/12. Perhaps customers migrated to Huobi and OKCoin. 也许吧。但BTC-中国2013/12之后失去了几乎所有它的体积。也许客户迁移到Huobi和OKCoin。 Also, Huobi and OKCoin have no trading fees. Therefore each customer will make more trade on Huobi and OKCoin than in other exchanges. 此外,Huobi和OKCoin无交易费。因此,每个客户将在Huobi和OKCoin比在其他交易所更多的贸易。 EDIT: fixed wrong quote.
|
|
|
|