1881
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 18, 2014, 04:03:33 PM
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I'm not sure how accurate it is, but a Coindesk article from a few days ago ( http://www.coindesk.com/margin-trading-crash-price-bitcoin/) gave a good hypothesis: margin trading. A lot of people borrowed money on margin to buy at the end of May, which led to the rally. Now all of those trades are being undone as people's positions are being liquidated due to margin calls. That seems very plausible. I just wish someone had made light of that (prominently) in June. Maybe. I know nothing of margin trading beyond the basic idea. Those calls that expired at the end of May, when were they made, and for how much? Was their volume compatible with the amounts involved in the rise? @Mimitech suggested the Dell adoption as the causing event, and @walsoraJ pointed out Jed McCaleb's threat to sell his huge holding of XRP. Maybe too. However, I would first look for a cause in China. Could that be the opening of the international branches of Huobi and OKCoin? Or some leak from the government?
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1883
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 18, 2014, 02:58:39 PM
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wow... you have spent too much time on this thread Jorge... you are sounding more and more like a troll lunatic/Bitcointalk.org member/one of us than an academic that anyone would take seriously, shame for you.
The language may be a failed attempt to be funny but the opinion is quite serious. What we saw since May/20 was a sudden rise from ~440$ to ~640 that no one can (or wants to) explain, then seven weeks of wandering around 600$, then a sudden drop back to ~470, that no one can (or wants to) explain either. Why is it absurd to consider all that as a single event? I have proposed a partial explanation: starting May/20, a few people got wind of something that made them buy all they could. Now those people changed their minds, and dumped everything back. So the price got back to where it was. Is this so much sillier than the narwhals(*) that people have been discussing here? (*) a large sea mammal reputed to be a cross between a whale and a unicorn.
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1886
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: August 18, 2014, 02:34:58 AM
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Would you be angry at me if I broke your response nest chain? :3
What are you talking about? Could he be referring to an illusion of continuity that sometimes prevails in this thread, in spite of our best efforts to make totally pointless?
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1887
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: August 17, 2014, 10:14:27 PM
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Is this a question with a dot at the end, or what?
Since that is obviously not "a question with a dot at the end", did you mean to write "is THAT a question with a dot at the end, or what?"? Uh - me like dots long time? Is that a reference to "A, B, ........................", which was a postcard that Iva Matrix once sent to Martin Gardner? How close am I? Not much I am afraid, why don't you google "several days before the meaning suddenly came to me"?
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1888
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: August 17, 2014, 05:42:08 PM
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Is this a question with a dot at the end, or what?
Since that is obviously not "a question with a dot at the end", did you mean to write "is THAT a question with a dot at the end, or what?"? Uh - me like dots long time? Is that a reference to "A, B, ........................", which was a postcard that Iva Matrix once sent to Martin Gardner?
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1891
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Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet
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on: August 17, 2014, 01:11:53 PM
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* Impossibility to re-flash the device with malicious code
Does this mean we won't be able to flash updates on the trezor? Like updates you could provide us that offer more functionality to the device? No, you are wrong. I have already updated the code on my Trezor once and expect more updates in the future. The important word to pay attention to in that sentence is the adjective malicious. ... that actually should be "code not signed by Satoshi labs". A hacker who wants to load malicious code into your Trezor would have to get hold of their signing key, or trick them into signing his code, or trick you into ignoring the device's warning.
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1894
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 17, 2014, 08:13:07 AM
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now is the bottom?
If I were forced to predict the bottom, under pain of having emacs removed from my computer, I would say around 450$. That is what the price was on May/19, before the buying sprees that lifted it to 650$. That guess assumes that the traders who did all that buying have changed their minds and are dumping all that they bought.
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1895
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 17, 2014, 07:52:27 AM
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Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC. If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.
Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon", they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.
So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?
Have you seen the research on bankless ATM's? I was referring to recent events about Coinbase and LBTC. About the bankless ATMs, I have read the article, and pointed out one problem (fake bills being input by a customer and dispensed to another). I think you spend too much time focusing on problems rather than solutions.
When I started college and became a trainee at the univeristy's computing center, my first task was to help other students find bugs in their programs. I have been looking for bugs in programs almost every day, often many hours a day, for the last 46 years. I cannot shake off the habit any more...
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1896
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 17, 2014, 06:51:25 AM
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Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC. If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.
Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon", they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.
So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?
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1898
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucks us over again
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on: August 17, 2014, 05:41:47 AM
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I bet that come Monday morning BFL will be in serious damage control mode. Can't wait to read how Josh is going to spin this revelation, hoping like hell he denies that Nitrowolf is him, for then it'll really be stuck up his ass.
To be frank, I don't think they're going to give a shit. Really, none of this really means anything, nor does it matter. I despise thrm like everyone else, but what's posted here really isn't anything worth getting frothy about. That's my bet too. They are not amateurs at their profession.
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