1402
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: February 24, 2015, 09:42:17 PM
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Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?
It was forced on them by the SEC I think until their ETF is approved or disapproved. Seems a little unfair on their unwitting investors. I cannot understand the logic either. IIRC, that information was confirmed by two or three clients who claimed to have got that information from SMBIT, but could not say more because of non-disclosure agreements. Barry confirmed on Twitter that redemptions are suspended while they are waiting for OTCQX, but did not say whether it was by order of the SEC or not. If anything, it would make sense for the SEC to prohibit selling shares while waiting for approval, not redeeming them. Did SMBIT at least promise to resume redemptions after the shares are listed on OTCQX? Does the contract allow them to cancel redemptions permanently?
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1404
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: February 24, 2015, 04:38:22 PM
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No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?
Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions. Will redemptions resume once shares are listed at OTCQX? Or will clients have to look for Greater Fools in order to get their money back? Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?
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1406
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 24, 2015, 03:26:17 PM
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Do you know who the auction winners will be, at what price they will win the auctions and what they intend to do with the bitcoins?
They will be the ones not buying 50,000 BTC on exchanges. Get it now? I didn't know whales used exchanges for these figures. The markets, open and private, are all connected. If there was a significant spread between OTC and the exchanges, brokers would immediately start buying on one and selling on the other. The US government is reducing their holdings of bitcoins by 50'000 BTC. The rest of the market will have to increase e holdings by that much. The price will necessarily end up lower than it would be if the US government had continued to hold the coins. The only question is whether that effect has already been "priced in", or, on the contrary, it will be delayed by weeks or months. The first 30'000 BTC apparently went into cold storage again, so their effect was only to suppress some buys that Tim Draper could have done in the following months, if and when Vaurum needed them. The next 50'000 mostly went to many small buyers who could not afford to bid for 2000 BTC; some of them may have been selling those coins on the exchanges, others just decreased their buying there.
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1410
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 24, 2015, 03:35:29 AM
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Could you see the parallels between the adoption of the UFC to mainstream and the mass adoption of our favorite "coin"? Maybe you have been looking at this thing more from a computer science aspect and missing out on the social phenomena?
The only parallels I can see is that I don't appreciate either. The only fighting sport I can waste time watching is Sumo, because my Japanese mother-in-law (83 years old, not even 5 feet tall) does not miss one championship on TV. So I sort of learned to appreciate it, sort of.
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1413
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 23, 2015, 05:01:30 PM
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I believe that it is not a coincidence that there are so few women who are "into" bitcoin. bitcoin or computer science or engineering or any of the stuff that separates us from primitive subsistence-level savages. When the first computer science courses opened in Brazil, women were often more that half of the students, and the brightest students were often women. Over the years the proportion has dropped to the same level as in electrical and civil engineering, that is 5--10% or maybe less. We had endless debates about why women don't apply to computer science anymore, with no conclusions. It is not because computer science is "difficult". It is actually one of the professions where even dumb people can succeed. There are plenty of women in medicine, chemistry, mathematics -- where you really need a functioning brain to work. I taught intro computing to chemical engineering freshmen last semester, and to my surprise the class was again half women, and again some of the best students were women. It must be some subtle thing in the popular image of the computer professional. Perhaps the idea that he is an antisocial nerd who hardly leaves his mom's basement --- a way of life which may appeal to many adolescent men, but not to adolescent women. women [ ... ] living in houses they didn't build, talking on phones they didn't invent, typing on computers they didn't program, driving cars they didn't design, going to stores they don't manage to spend money they didn't earn.
And you still think that men are more intelligent than women?
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1414
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 23, 2015, 04:17:41 PM
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Women's brains are different. They have less grey matter and more connective tissue. So do psychopaths.
"Connective tissue" is relatively inert material that holds cells and organs together. White matter is not connective tissue, it is mainly the wires (axons) that transmit signals between neurons located in different parts of the grey matter. So, if women really have more white matter, one could argue that their neurons have more connections, and they are better able to integrate disparate clues etc. A bigger brain does not mean more neurons. If the brain is 5% smaller, perhaps the neurons are 5% smaller on average. Smaller neurons may be slighlty more sensitive to disturbances like starvation, fever, and alcohol, but on the other hand (as in integrated circuits) they may be somewhat faster, both because they take less time to "charge" and because the connecting axons are shorter. However, the idea that size or shape of the brain are related to "intellectual ability" (whatever that means) is just barstool science. "Men have higher gray to white ratio than women, and men are more intelligent, therefore higher G/W implies intelligence, therefore men are more intelligent than women." I don't know whether women are more intelligent than men, but they do seem to be more sensible. Perhaps because men have this urge to do stupid things in order to impress women. "Look at me, what I am doing may be totally stupid, but it shows that I am strong and nimble and can endure hardship; so please have some of my DNA, which carries these traits but does not carry my stupidity (unless you are unlucky and get my Y chromosome together with the rest)." In particular, I believe that it is not a coincidence that there are so few women who are "into" bitcoin.
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1415
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 23, 2015, 07:04:03 AM
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Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.
In the supposed BitPay input wallet , some of the largest deposits (up to ~4500 BTC) came from KnC: 2014-02-18 08:24:31 a6b640f6b3ccc0a88730797b925a558f25daf8e6390636861583246a810601a3 +4496.11720000 KnCMiner.com 2013-11-18 10:46:54 085b09cfbe1d6f5214842ded9d8d2a50e467a6b51f82fbdaefecc63e7d2b2ebb +2900.00000000 KnCMiner.com 2014-02-24 16:09:50 0621cddd70fb86f74adda088209831516e6ab9384663fd517bc7fbee7a12f30b +1758.82190000 KnCMiner.com 2014-02-27 14:38:24 7396ca676a238a21fb45f0b96d6191053b25daef0e3e56ad2d54c7cd46442479 +1420.45130000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-06 15:00:31 fe378b97f1f5dc4dbf3ee6059c6f226988c090eb149a90a66baf0bf5c7a0fb9e +1375.69510000 KnCMiner.com 2013-11-23 17:40:08 c61b49f50a6fd7112747375f4cd14cde6e4a2c28d9b88b0ed64b838087fc258d +1000.00000000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-03 07:20:58 a53e12545d054126d422fdb4f664107843ba5aa2555d9bdb1f759631febb82cd +888.67670000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-13 10:34:52 fb49859a319462afccea88d50ef0238ada66679ebbb64f172dc5a6dcf57fa41e +849.35700000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-22 16:06:12 fc0c75776779c48ba4b6fd843848ae7b26ab56263c99aaf0024e4c9056c5a779 +672.85790000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-21 06:29:42 1e89707414df189934e21ef7c200ef7833e2867a062e4084c9a07636d5d0fa3d +497.57430000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-27 07:31:57 98435bdcabee4aa43d951f8f4d402fa61ae0006a8388aba49baae3e74af2d8fc +493.60870000 KnCMiner.com 2014-02-20 08:13:24 026f92da78db19fe561a05f0a77104619783452a8f24a4efed8719abd9553a95 +460.31630000 KnCMiner.com 2014-01-27 16:44:32 4570a7a8ae134099def4b6c26c79c8f90b8c754339dafb941ac508835956e1b0 +182.79950000 KnCMiner.com
Most of the coins that are deposited into that wallet are sent by BitPay to exchanges like Bitstamp to be sold. Presumably, those deposits are KnC paying their bills (electricity, equipment, etc.). BitPay's TOS forbid clients to use them just to sell; the destination of the dollars must be a merchant of some sort. (Otherwise theyr would not be a "payment processor" but a "money transmitter" and they don't have licenses for that.) Perhaps more evidence of miners selling could be found by scanning the wallets of the exchanges and other payment processors. I don't think we need to ponder whether miners sell their coins or not. Imagine that each miner Joe is actually two persons, Joe Miner and Joe Investor. Each day, Joe Miner sells all the coins that he mines, pays his bills, deposits the rest in a bank account, and goes to bed. Joe Investor then takes over; he may or may not take some money from the bank to buy bitcoins. Mathematically, that is equivalent to a single person Joe who may or may not keep some of the coins that he mines. However, mentally separating the two personas makes it easier to see that a miner is just like any other investor, when it comes to holding coins. Specifically, Joe is as likely to hold 100 of his mined as a random investor with 23'000 USD in hand is likely to buy 100 coins with that money.
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1416
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 22, 2015, 09:13:39 PM
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It seems that banks in China do not reopen all at the same time after the New Year holidays. (The bitcoin media could help traders by researching and posting the exact dates; but that would break a long and glorious tradition of uselesness and misinformation.)
Last year, price remained fairly stable while the Chinese banks were closed (about 2014-01-30 to 02-06). Then in two days it dropped from ~800 USD/BTC to ~700 (~12%). The drop apparently started on 02-06, but most of it happened on 02-07.
Perhaps the Chinese traders who spent more than they planned during the holidays needed to take some cash out to pay bills. But the MtGOX saga was unraveling too at the time, and it may have contributed too.
A 12% drop this time would be maybe 30 USD, not as noticeable as 100 USD was then. There was a ~40 USD drop from ~315 on 2015-01-03, just before Bitstamp got hacked. There was another drop by ~70 USD from ~270 on 2015-01-13 (not counting the extra ~50 USD that bounced back almost immediately).
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1417
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 22, 2015, 03:11:49 AM
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If we don't have Mt-Gox we wouldn't be able to see 1250$ coins. Mark Karpeles' most useful work is the November 2013 bubble. The only "good stuff" I can think of is this.
Sorry, he did not. The Nov/2013 bubble (and almost certainly also the Apr/2013 one) was made in China, by an army of amateur and semi-pro day-traders who discovered bitcoin and bought a million BTC or more from the West. Huobi ad OKCoin were clearly leading the price change, both during the Nov/2013 rally and during the Dec/2013 crash. Given that premise, WIlly's purpose can only have been to do arbitrage with China. That would have been an "unsurmountable opportunity" to make tens of millions of dollars of profit: buy coins from your customers with make-believe dollars, move the coins to a Chinese exchange, sell them for CNY at a significant markup, withdraw the CNY, convert to USD, take your profit, and put the rest of the USD in your client accounts, before they notice the coup. But perhaps the PBoC realized that those Chinese day-traders had just imported a couple million worthess pieces of nothing, without going through customs or anything, and were about to pay 1 billion USD in CNY for them to the foreign sellers. Perhaps the PBoC decrees and bank closures were intended in part ot prevent that significant bite in China's trade balance, and keep the CNY in China?
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1418
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 22, 2015, 02:55:18 AM
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That is something Tether could resolve. (already used by Bitfinex and Poloniex) AFAIK, Tether is Brock Pierce's creation, formerly (briefly) called RealCoin, and is supposed to be an altcoin pegged to the dollar. That is, a dollar IOU. So Tether may be just a competitor to PayPal, wrapped to look like a cryptocoin? And maybe Coinbase is already a competitor to Paypal, wrapped to look like a bitcoin exchange?
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1419
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucked us over again
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on: February 20, 2015, 10:48:02 PM
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Yes, the FTC case is still going to court. It's just going to take a while.
Don't they have to provide periodic reports to the Judge about their progress with refunds?
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