Plot legend -- April 26, 2014

The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).

The gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot.

The magenta square at right is the prediction for the next Slumber Time.

The blue square nearest to it is the last prediction (see below).

The light blue-gray squares are the previous predictions.

The yellow dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day.

On the Huobi plot, the size of the lantern under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi.

Specifically, the area of the lantern is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest lantern corresponds to S = 0.015 or greater.

The size of each yellow dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight W = exp(-(S/refS)^2/2) with refS = 0.005.

The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points.

The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The /Neotragus pygmaeus/ is a very small bull (or maybe a cow).      
[size=8pt]Original photo by Travis S., [url]http://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/4345885372[/url][/size]