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When you respond to me saying patronizing things like "there are other problems with the way scalability is limited," I have trouble not thinking you are either confused or insane. Or just lazy, and did not read my "Scalability Roadmap" blog post.
It is certainly true that nobody can predict the future with 100% accuracy. We might get hit by an asteroid before I finish this sentence. (whew! didn't!)
But extrapolating current trends seems to me to be the best we can do-- we are just as likely to be too conservative as too aggressive in our assumptions.