It would only take 17 hours at 6 blocks an hour to hit the 100 block level. I mean its not very probable that something like that could happen, but it's possible.
If the network was split 50/50, then each half would generate blocks half as fast. So it would take 34 hours.
For an "Egypt splits off from the rest of the network" scenario, it would probably split something like "less than 5% generated in Egypt, 95% rest of the world" in which case it would take 17/.05 = over two weeks for the blocks generated in Egypt to mature.