Gavin Andresen - 2013-11-07 23:08:14

If this "80 msec delay" is the delay of the block being accepted by 51% of the nodes, then it means that most miners are loosing money by accepting a fee lower than 0.00333 BTC/KByte, which is the case most of the time.

This is because each 80 msec costs 25*80/1000/60/10 = 0.00333 BTC
Most of the current blocks have lower fees per Kbyte.

In turns this means that, if miners start acting rationally, a standard transaction cost should be at least USD 83 cents, with current exchange rate. Which in turns means if header-only-push is not implemented, the Bitcoin value cannot rationally be higher than 270 USD/BTC, since a 1 USD fee seems too much for most of the common payments.


Is this correct?

Yes.

I am much more worried about transaction fees right now than "selfish mining". That is why I've been working on better fee estimation in the reference implementation.

I agree with Mike-- we need better measurement, and we need to make "full-match merkle block relaying" the default to drive that 80ms number way down.