# Gavin Andresen
# 2012-12-14 01:51:42
# https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130544.msg1398769#msg1398769

Disclaimer: I'm bad at predicting the future. @p{par}

Will governments create a crypto-currency to try to compete? @p{par}

The "network effect" is really important for money. Any form of money gains value as more people use it. @p{par}

It is possible that Bitcoin (or any future crypto-currency) will never be able to gain enough use to overcome big, existing currencies, that already enjoy huge network effects. @p{par}

But... the potential users for Bitcoin is greater than any national currency because Bitcoin doesn't care about arbitrary political borders. So maybe at some point in the future a distributed, borderless crypto-currency will have a bigger network effect, and will start to replace zlotny or euros or dollars. @p{par}

At that point, I don't think any one government would be able to compete. Other governments won't voluntarily give up the ability to control their own currency, so even if a government came out with their own crypto-currency how would they overcome the network effect and get people all over the world to use their newfangled solution? @p{par}

It is possible that there will be some type of worldwide government; a currency from THAT government could, I think, compete with a decentralized crypto-currency. @p{par}

I have no idea how likely any of this is. @p{par}

RE: consequences of the dollar not being the world's reserve currency any more: I'd take a look at the history of Britain. The Pound was the world's reserve currency for a long time, before being replaced by the dollar.  England seems to be doing OK, and I'm not aware of any radically huge consequences of the transition from Pounds to dollars. @p{brk}