# Gavin Andresen
# 2013-11-20 06:42:38
# https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339505.msg3648359#msg3648359

DeathAndTaxes: I'm normally impressed with your posts, but I think you've got some details wrong. @p{par}

First, RE: the orphan cost of transactions:  @p{(link}Decker/Wattenhofer measured@p{link)} 80ms for a 1K bigger block. The math to compute orphan cost is: @p{brk}

Code:
orphan cost = (block_reward+fees) * (1 - e^(-(1/target block time)*delta_time)
Plugging in 25 XBT block reward, 600 target time, 0.08 delta time, and assuming no fees (to make the math easier): @p{brk}

Code:
orphan cost = 25 * (1 - e^(-(1/600)*0.08) = 0.0033
 @p{brk}
So 3.3 millies per kilobyte is the orphan cost. @p{par}

Even if we assume Decker/Wattenhofer are off by a factor of two (we @p{(bf}have@p{bf)} made some improvements since they measured block propagation; better measurements welcome), @p{(so}default transaction fees (1 to 5 millies per kilobyte) are in the right ballpark to minimize orphan costs.@p{so)} the .1 default transaction fee does not come close to covering the orphan cost (edited: thanks foxpup). @p{par}

It should be fairly easy to get about another factor of about 10-20 reduction in orphan costs. And as I said in another thread, if EVERYBODY produces larger blocks then EVERYBODY bears the increased orphan cost, and the result is better for everybody . There is a fixed number of new bitcoins to be earned, regardless of the orphan rate; everybody's share of that fixed number will be the same if everybody has a slightly higher orphan block rate. But everybody will earn more fees, and their bitcoins will be worth more because bitcoins will be more useful.