I see what you mean    But today is not merely a "lull" in the price (of which there have been many in a row), it is one of 4 minimum volume days at Huobi since the New Year Week; the 3 previous being well-separated, and followed by large, sudden and persistent price changes.

Indeed, for the first and second press releases, due Feb/10 and Feb/20; the drops were clearly due to disappointment  and the claim of "bug in bitcoin"  (Although the tense wait for the first was on Sun Feb/09 not  Thu Feb/06, right?).

There seems to be no consensus about the causes of the third minimum-volume day Mar/02 and the rally on Mar/03.  The immediate cause of the latter was a huge buy in Bitstamp.  However I recall that there were big expectations about an upcoming Bloomberg TV announcement; could that be it? (But that was a flop, and yet the price rallied...)

Ah! "Fundamentals"! 

Professionals know more than that simple rule.  (Note that it fails if the "low" where the item was bought is not followed by a suitable "high" in an acceptable time frame.   If the fund's  value will "never" return to the 80$ level, a trader who follows that rule blindly will lose 100%, while a trader who liquidates now will lose only 25%.)


That is why I wrote "in whatever time frame he cares for".  If such a trader believes that the value will go up by 10% or more over 60$ within that 2+ year frame,  he will hold; but if he expects that in 2+ years the value will not increase over 60$ by more than the fees, he will want to liquidate as soon as possible and move to a better investment.

And he will not base such belief merely on the past price history, he will look for fundamentals.  (I mentioned the drop from 80$ to 60$ only to show that a 2% fee is not a significant deterrent to early liquidation in the case of bitcoin investments.  I did not mean that such a drop was a reason to sell.)

Looking at Huobi (whose volume seems less "random" than Bitstamp), the volume was this low on Feb/06, Feb/19, and Mar/02 (UTC; may be 1 less in your local time)

The first two low-volume dates were followed by large price drops: 110 USD (on Bitstamp, 800 to 690) and 70 USD (630 to 560).  The third date was follwed by a large price increase: 110 USD (~560 to ~670)

Their fees are much lower than the expecetd changes in BTC price.

If an investor believes that BTC may lose 10% of its value in the next year  (or whatever time frame he cares for), then he would probably want to liquidate now.  If I read correctly, the value already dropped from ~85$ to ~62$ over the last month.

Does anyone know for sure whether their "liquidity" has started?

I suppose that it means that some investors now can "liquidate" their investment, i.e. withdraw dollars based on the current valuation or soething.

If so, presumably that applies only the early investors, for now? I.e. there is a minimum wait period before one can "liquidate" one's investment?

I don't think so, they say that there is no plans for that:


From comments in other threads, I gather that investors can only liquidate their investment (at its current value, which presumably depends on the BTC price and the BIT managers' trading performance) starting "no later than March 2014".

I know that.  But in their site they say "Liquidity to commence no later than March 2014".  I understand that it is when investors will be allowed to take their money out of the fund, correct?

Does SecondMarket allow withdrawals yet?  If so, does it apply to all investors, or does it depend on the date of investment?

There seem to be a lack of news about Neo & Bee since Feb/24, but many people asking.

I learned now that their shares are not traded on regular stock exchanges, in Cyprus or elsewhere, but only on a few bitcoin-based markets such as Panama-based Havelock Investments.  Whose key people apparently are anonymous (personal names are not used in the planet of Bitconia  ).

The NEOBEE share price on Havelock was about 0.0030 BTC since opening to Feb/22 (~1.86 USD then), suddenly raliied to 0.0060 BTC (~3.55 USD) on Feb/23--26, then gradualy dropped again and is 0.0037  BTC (~2.33 USD) now.  It seems that the drop was due to something they said about their connections to ordinary banks.

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=NEOBEE

The site http://mark-karpeles.com/ that analyzed the leaked MtGOX logs has been shut down by the owner.

It seems that certain Mysteries are not meant to be revealed to Man. 

Total trade volume today (Fri Mar/14 00:00--23:59 UTC), on the exchanges that I monitor, was ~198 kBTC.  That is 35% more than yesterday's but still 25% less than last Friday (Mar/07).

Trade volume outside China was practically the same as yesterday (18 kBTC).  Exchange BTC-e (3.76 kBTC) lost 49% of its volume and slipped to third place, after Bitstamp (8.68, +28%) and Bitfinex (5.53, +67%).

Trade volume in China increased 39% (from 129 to 179 kBTC).  OKCoin led again, with 55% of that trade against 44% of Huobi,

China's slice of the total volume increased again from 88% to 91%.

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/07 !  03/08 !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 !  03/14 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  21.45 |   9.70 |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 |   8.68 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  17.23 |  10.97 |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 |   5.53 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  13.54 |   8.71 |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 |   3.76 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Kraken     |   1.20 |   0.55 |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 |   0.48 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.38 |   0.31 |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 |   0.20 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.24 |   0.12 |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.11 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.06 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  54.11 |  30.39 |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |  18.82 |                     

  OKCoin     | 109.70 | 146.46 | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 |  97.80 | CNY                 
  Huobi      |  96.37 | 119.46 | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 |  78.40 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   4.87 |   5.08 |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 |   2.97 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.32 |   0.28 |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 |   0.19 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 211.26 | 271.28 | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 | 179.36 |                     

  TOTAL      | 265.37 | 301.67 | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 | 198.18 |                     


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

Chinese Arbitrary Icon Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Saturday Mar/15

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Ruby (orange) if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V_d 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is a Lignite (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the True Points.

Today (Mar/14) seems to be a Lignite (V_h/V_d ~ 849/90000 = 0.00943 > 0.005) and therefore should be ignored.  Since the previous Ruby was isolated and did not seem to continue some earlier trend, there is no point in giving a prediction today.  Huobi's traders will have to figure out the price by themselves.

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The squares are previous predictions.  The dots and lines are Huobi's Slumber Points and trends scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-14, 07:38 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3918 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3821 CNY
Error: 97 CNY (~16 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 645 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 631 USD
Error: 14 USD

NOTE: Admittedly minerals are not as exciting as dinosaurs.  For the next prediction I am considering tubers, staple guns, protozoa, gaskets, subatomic particles, or something like that.

Total trade volume today (Thu Mar/13 00:00--23:59 UTC) on the exchanges that I monitor was ~148 kBTC.  That is very low, 27% less than yesterday's; but it is almost the same as the day before (Tue Mar/11), both in China and outside it.

Volume outside China fell 37% (from 29 to 18 kBTC).  BTC-e (7.43 kBTC) was almost unchanged and moved to first place. Bitstamp (6.73) fell 47% and became second, and Bitfinex (3.31) lost 55% and became a distant third.

Volume in China fell 25% (from 172 to 129 kBTC).  Huobi (65.4 kBTC) fell less than OkCoin (60.7) and regained the first place that it had until Mar/04.

China's slice of the total volume increased again  from 86% to 88%.

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/06 !  03/07 !  03/08 !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 ! Currencies considered

  BTC-e      |   5.69 |  13.54 |   8.71 |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Bitstamp   |  10.40 |  21.45 |   9.70 |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |   7.06 |  17.23 |  10.97 |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   0.71 |   1.20 |   0.55 |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.34 |   0.38 |   0.31 |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.22 |   0.24 |   0.12 |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.03 |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  24.45 |  54.11 |  30.39 |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |                     

  Huobi      |  92.40 |  96.37 | 119.46 | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     | 139.37 | 109.70 | 146.46 | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   5.58 |   4.87 |   5.08 |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.32 |   0.32 |   0.28 |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 237.67 | 211.26 | 271.28 | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 |                     

  TOTAL      | 262.12 | 265.37 | 301.67 | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 |                     


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday Mar/14

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3918 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 645 USD.

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is True (orange) if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V_d 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is False (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the True Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction.

Today (Mar/13) was a True Point (V_h/V_d = 124/65400 = 0.00190 < 0.005) and therefore valid.  Since this point is quite far from the previous trend,and the previous point (Mar/11) was False, there is no clear trend yet, and it would be wiser to refrain from making any prediction.  The one given above is a rather arbitrary guess, just a repeat of today's price.  (I suspect that it will be quite wrong since a mini-crash is in progress right now.  But, what the heck...)

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, lines, and magenta squares are Huobi's Slumber Points, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

(The Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio seems to have returned to R = 6.12 since Mar/11.  This new value of R was used for the Bitstamp prediction for Fri Mar/14, but prior predictions were plotted as posted.)

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 21:28 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3783 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3918 CNY
Error: 135 CNY (~22 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 631 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 645 USD
Error: 14 USD

NOTE: No dinosaurs today, they cannot hold up to the competition.  Time to retreat and rethink the marketing strategy.

When my neighbors leave for work, their dog keeps barking at their back door, nonstop for the whole day.  The dog must be pretty sure that it is its barking that brings the owners home at night. 

Yes, the steam engine had a huge impact on society.   With the blessing of governments, though.


I am almost certain of that. A barking dog does not bite; a tweeting man does not fight.

It is not about the suffering and trauma; those were terrible but died with the people who lived through it.

WWII radically changed the structure of society all over the world, even in countries that were not involved in the war and were far from its many battlefields.  Western Europe and Japan were "Americanized" in almost every aspect of life, government and economy, while Eastern Europe became communist.  Societies on both sides became more egalitarian and mobile, the nobility lost most of its remaining properties and privileges, people became more conscious of their rights, and so on.  The maps of Europoe, the Middle East and large parts of Africa were re-drawn.  NATO was born in WWII.  Reaction to the trauma of war paved the way for what seemed absolutely impossible before, the opening of frontiers in Europe, the unification of its economy.  English became the default second laguage for most of the world.  It was WWII that created the bloated US military-industrial complex.  And much, much more...

 (And I suppose you call it "localized" because it involved only six of the seven continents.  )

Well, *sigh*.