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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 05, 2014, 07:52:57 AM
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If BTCChina is dead then why the volume is quite high (~100BTC/hour) there?
Check the 1d charts for last 6-8 months at bitcoinwisdom.com, compare volumes of BTC-China, Huobi, OKCoin. * BTC-China was dominant in China through 2013. It had ~13 kBTC/day in October, then ˜60 kBTC/day until ~Dec/20. After the "five agencies decree" they stopped yuan input/output through banks and switched to a voucher system; which apparently never worked because their volume fell to ˜5 kBTC/day or less. At some point they got a bank deposits/withdrawals working again, but never recovered their former volume. * OKCoin started having substantial volume in November, ~40 KBTC/day (2/3 of than BTC-China). After the December decree they too (IIRC) stopped using banks for a short while, and their volume fell to near zero; but in January they got bank channels working again. Their volume recovered to ~20 kBTC/day and then in February rose to ~60 kBTC/day. * Huobi started real volume in early November, with ~40 kBTC/day. After the December decree they continued using banks, and their volume then increased to the current ~60 kBTC. (Presumably they took most of the BTC-China clients.) Fee policies also contributed to the picture -- Huobi did not charge fees, OKCoin eventually abolished theirs, BTC-China resisted for a while. There were a few short periods when the volumes fell substantially in those Chinese exchanges, e.g. the Chinese New Year's week. There were several other significant exchanges in China (FXBTC, BTC38, etc.) which may account for 30% of the Chinese exchange volume. Even without them, the total Chinese volume per day was about 80% of the World total. In summary, BTC-China became insignificant after the December decrees (maybe 2-3% of the Chinese volume) and never recovered.
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43
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 05, 2014, 04:42:56 AM
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On page 4, that article by Academic Prof. Kristoufek says For examination of the relationship between the USD and Chinese Renminbi (CNY) Bitcoin markets, we use prices and volumes of the btcnCNY market which is by far the biggest CNY exchange. But "btcnCNY" is BTC-China, which at the time the article was written (after MtGOX was found to be insolvent) was essentially dead. No wonder his fancy wavelet method found no influence of "China" on the USD price. He must be excused however, since his source for price series is www.bitcoincharts.com -- which STILL refuses to admit the existence of any Chinese exchange other than BTC-China.
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45
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 05, 2014, 03:04:58 AM
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Why is anyone still focusing on China? Do they contribute anything to Bitcoin development or adoption?
Because they still define the price, mostly. Arbitrage trading tends to equalize prices among all exchanges, generally by copying the price from high-liquidity exchanges to low liquidity ones (counting as "liquidity" not only the order book but also how quickly the traders react, I guess.) That effectively means copying the price from the main Chinese exchanges (OKCoin, Huobi, BTC-China, and several others that are not listed by popular chart sites) to those in the "West" (Bitstamp, BTC-e, etc.) I would say that this rally, in particular, was started and is being driven by the Chinese traders. The big price jumps (the positive ones, at least) seem to have started in China a little before they start in the West. (It hard to tell for sure, the difference is less than a minute; which is expected, because arbitrage robots must be quick or they will lose the opportunities to competitors).
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47
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Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Goat is a SCAMMER!!! Part 2: Revenge of the Goat!
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on: June 03, 2014, 10:42:25 PM
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Could someone please tell that lawyer how to spell "customer"? I am a bad speller myself, but that "custumer" is preventing me from concentrating on the legal aspects of the case.
(And please tell him/her also that lawyers say "client" not "customer", and do not use smileys when serving a legal threat.)
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48
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far
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on: June 03, 2014, 10:31:28 PM
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Thanks to San Google and Santa Wikipedia for clarifying the "giant owl" reference for me: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohemian_GroveJones claimed that the Cremation of Care was an "ancient Canaanite, Luciferian, Babylon mystery religion ceremony," and that the owl statue was Moloch. The Grove and Jones' investigation were covered by Jon Ronson in Channel 4's four-part documentary, Secret Rulers of the World. Ronson documented his view of the ritual in his book, Them: Adventures With Extremists, writing "My lasting impression was of an all-pervading sense of immaturity: the Elvis impersonators, the pseudo-pagan spooky rituals, the heavy drinking. These people might have reached the apex of their professions but emotionally they seemed trapped in their college years." Indeed, one cannot make these things up.
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54
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far
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on: June 03, 2014, 02:50:31 PM
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411 By Nathan Layne In the filing, [ Sunlot ] listed Freeh Group International Solutions, a firm established by former FBI director Louis Freeh that has carried out a series of investigations into high-profile scandals, among a team of advisers it planned to tap for Mt. Gox.
Note: "it planned to tap". Sunlot also mentioned PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) as a firm that might do the audit. But their PR admits (and it is in their writings, apparently) that they have no agreement with PwC yet. They plan to "tap" PwC after the takeover is approved, but if PwC does not accept their terms and price, then Sunlot is free to do whatever it pleases about the audit, and the clients who agreed to the takeover will be allowed to sit and wait. Presumably their deal with FGIS for the criminal investigation is on the same level as their deal with PwC. But I have a bad feeling about how this affair wil end. Sunlot already made a deal with the major claimants who were suing MtGOX in the US (and who claimed to have evidence of wrongdoings) to retire their lawsuit. Some big-time criminals will probably walk out of this, free and rich... The crooks look so determined, and the bitcoiners so naive, greedy, and lame...
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55
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: June 03, 2014, 02:53:59 AM
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In the plot of the order book, what is the meaning of the grey line between the bid plot and the ask plot? It does not seem to be the arithmetic mean of the two, nor the geometric mean: At the right edge of the plot, the mean of 3995 and 4150 (geometric or arithmetic) should be about 4070, quite a bit lower than the grey line.
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