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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 05:38:15 PM
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" [ ... ] In other words, it's weird, it's fishy, it's Mt. Gox, but it's not proof of some kind of fraudulent trading in and of itself. It can mean a whole lot of things and I'm happy to see more information come out."
Well, some 650'000 bitcoins that were supposed to be there just weren't there at the end. A crime surely happened, the only questions are which kind, how, when, by who, etc.. Mark claimed it was a theft, but AFAIK he has not provided any details (the thesis of the "malleability bug" has been disproved), failed to tell the police as soon as he noticed it, and did not tell the clients until after closing the site. I hope the law will find the right label for his actions.
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164
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 04:06:54 PM
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http://willyreport.wordpress.com/So basically, each time, (1) an account was created, (2) the account spent some very exact amount of USD to market-buy coins ($2,500,000 was most common), (3) a new account was created very shortly after. Repeat. In total, a staggering ~$112 million was spent to buy close to 270,000 BTC – the bulk of which was bought in November. So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason. But more on that later.
lol Amazing...
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167
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 02:44:37 PM
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Comment on the part where he makes a compelling argument why, all speculative/regulatory/technical issues aside, having the possibility for the first time in human history to work with such a thing as a distributed, tamper proof, public ledger, is kinda a big deal I am sure you wanted to add "without a specific controlling authority". For those three qualities you listed, one does not need the complexity and expense of the bitcoin protocol. (Is that what Ripple is/was about?) With "ownerless" thrown in, it is certainly an exciting concept. Let's see whether it (a) can remain ownerless and (b) widely accessible without advanced hacker tricks. Those are two of the things that I am very skeptical about. By some accounts, paranoid maybe, Brock Pierce may be planning to "own" bitcoin, as he practically owned the real-money market for virtual game money with his previous company (IGE). AFAIK, Bitcoin is now efectively run by a few industrial miners (not sure that is what Satoshi had in mind), and one of them (KnC) seems to have close ties to him. In any case, the formation of a mining cartel or even a monopoly seems to be a non-negligible risk. I don't know of any country that has banned bitcoin outright (er, what did Russia and India do, exactly?), but China and several others have banned its use in commerce and finance, and severely restricted its speculative trade. Even the US, that otherwise seems to be bitcoin-friendly, has put many restrictions for its use in their own soil. (A telegraphic tinfoil-hat interpretation of the US stance could be: the CIA wanted it, the NSA designed it, the FBI loved it, the IRS promptly taxed it, and the SEC said 'OK, fine, as long as American citizens are not induced to invest in it'. )
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170
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 01:02:32 PM
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Is it time for China to ban bitcoin again or not yet?
Who knows? These well-separated buying spurts smell like insider trading to me. Some Chinese traders got news that made them want to buy well above market. Others see the price rising and just follow along. Still others are diffident and take time to raise their bids.
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171
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 12:51:20 PM
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Hey prof, I know you got your own thing going on, but I think that if you wanted to be serious about investigating this bitcoin thing then you should at least try it out. You could simply make a public address and ask for donations (I'm sure you'd probably get quite a few)
by having a public address, everyone who donates to your "research project" would be able to see exactly what you decide to spend the bitcoin on. (As long as you spend the bitcoin donations on other public addresses.)
Dear @shmadz, thanks for the offer and the suggestion, but I will rather pass for now. All the best.
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173
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Breaking News! Thief nabbed while breaking into SilkRoad's vault: Caught on film
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on: May 25, 2014, 11:09:20 AM
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Is the SilRoad.com address in Tokyo perchance close to MtGOX's old offices? MtGOX: Round Cross 5F, Shibuya 2-Chome-11-6, Shibuya-ku Tokyo, Japan 150-0002 http://numismatics.pwnz.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Exclusive-License-Agreement-Reduced.pdfSR: JR Ebisu Building 11F 1-Chome-5-5 Ebisuminami, Shibuya-ku Tokyo, Japan 150-0022 http://www.silkroad.com/fr/Societe/Nos-bureaux.htmlIIRC, Shibuya is a favorite section of Tokyo for technology companies, so that probably does not mean anything. Adrresses in Japan are a complicated thing, I was not able to locate them for sure with Google Maps.
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174
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 06:03:18 AM
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Looking at the 1m charts, it seems to me that this last spurt began in China at 4:50 UTC (12:50 afternoon local time). Within 1 minute it was repeated at Bitstamp and Bitfinex, only a couple of minutes later reached BTC-e and Coinbase. Check?
Too bad that bitcoinwisdom does not provide intervals shorter than 1 min. Perhaps someone could check the transaction logs to confirm Huobi x Bitstamp.
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175
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Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox reclaim procedure?
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on: May 25, 2014, 05:26:17 AM
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Thanks to the huge negative-FUD-PR campaign in the media against Mt. Gox, Mt. Gox now equals bitcoin. Not true of course, but it's the popular perception of the matter. Japan is merely looking out for its own strategic interest, if and when, it chooses to help out the Mt. Gox depositors.
Not true, of course. Bitcoin is not MtGOX. MtGOX was just one of hundreds of scams that bitcoin made possible. The media is not in a "FUD campaign against bitcoin". Bitcoiners are unbeatable in that regard. Look at The Bitcoin Foundation, better called The Shrem Karpeles & Friends foundation, electing Brock Pierce to the all-powerful board of directors. No reporter could make that up. Two very bad things happened to bitcoin that will kill it. One is its adoption by "libertarians" who (naively) saw in it a weapon to destroy government and allow unrestricted trade of illegal items like drugs and weapons. The other was the opening of the Chinese market, that caused the huge spike in the price, that in turn attracted all sort of financial scammers selling bitcoin as a lucrative and safe investment to unwary investors. Bitcoin will die before it can get rid of those pests.
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178
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Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox reclaim procedure?
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on: May 25, 2014, 02:36:53 AM
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It's more of a government-assisted acquisition for the betterment of the Japanese national interest that can be accomplished for a rather minimal net expenditure. Of course it would never be undertaken without at least the tacit support of a few industry leaders who have an interest. It would require a consensus of concerned business and government leaders.
Methinks that is giving too much importance to MtGOX. Even when it seemed to be doing well, it was just a small business, comparable in revenue to a medium-size supermarket, but with far less capital assets (that it owned, not that it was merely the depositor of). According to the plan that Mark drew up when trying to sell the company, its revenue from fees in 2013 varied between 1 and 4 million USD/month, and its total profit in 2013 was a mere 286'000 USD http://arstechnica.com/business/2014/02/leaked-just-before-bitcoin-catastrophe-mtgox-dreamed-of-riches/After its collapse, MtGOX became just a small defunct business. Its demise was a catastrophe for the bitcoin community, but was hardly noticed outside it. As you know, there has been much speculation about what happened to the funds, and since no arrests have to-date been forthcoming, it suggests the absence of any evidence of major wrong-doing in this case.
The mere disappearance of 500 million USD in funds that the clients thought that they had shows that a major crime was committed. Marc may have been a victim of a hacker; but there is no proof of that, only Marc's word, and he has not offered a plausible explanation of how the hack was carried out. On the other hand, his behavior in the final days is not above reproach -- to put it very, very mildly. Suppose the British had adopted that philosophy at Dunkirk?
I am not sure what aspect of that battle you are referring to. But the British were still in the middle of a war, thy had not capitulated yet. Reviving MtGOX sounds more like those film plots where some secret neonazi group tries to clone Hitler and create the Fourth Reich. Clarifying my last comment: the loss of MtGOX did not leave a void to be filled, because any former MtGOX clients who wished to continue trading could do so at any of the other exchanges. Any special features of that site could be replicated by another company without it having to assume the negative aura of being the "MtGOX 2.0"
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180
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 25, 2014, 12:43:38 AM
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Anybody know where to get volume numbers from Mycelium wallet local exchanges, localbitcoins.com, et filia?
Bitcoincharts.com shows Localbitcoin trades, for a dozen currencies separately. I gathered their daily volumes for a while, but they did not add up to much. Will try to repost the numbers later today or tomorrow.
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