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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 09:33:11 PM
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If you could understand that nobody here believes your China theory and nobody cares about your sensless "proofs", that would be great. Just accept that both Chinese and Westerners have bought some bitcoins lately and it is a global phenomenon, yet still in its infancy. The sooner you acknowledge this, the better for everybody, including yourself.
Whoa, no reason to be upset. It is only your money that is in the game, not mine.
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202
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 09:22:30 PM
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Didn't [ Bitstamp ] pass a solvency audit prior to the fall of Gox?
Wasn't it Andreas [ the auditor ]? Apologies, on phone with low battery so can't search to find the details. What does who it was change to the fact you have to trust them? Because Andreas also vouched for Neo & Bee... Besides the auditor's reputation, one must consider HOW the "audit" was done. Basically, it didn't prove anything -- if Bitstamp were lying to clients, they could have easily fooled that "audit" too. EDIT: as others pointed out Andreas "audited" Coinbase, not Bitstamp.
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204
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 09:04:18 PM
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I haven't seen this kick in to a full blown feedback loop yet, I bet if you start posting Chinese slumber predictions again you could kill it. I'll LOL had if you do, hell i promise to short a little.
The basic Chinese Slumber Method is trivial, just take the Huobi 1h chart on Bitcoinwisdom, switch to UTC time, line drawing mode, and connect the last two Slumber Points -- mean price in the last two 19:00 UTC candles. We just went through one. Then shift the plot so that you can read the line's value at the next 19:00 position. A slight refinement is to skip Slumber Points with visible volume bars, like yesterday's. Connecting the points of May/21 nd May/23 I get ~3380 CNY for tomorrow May/24 ~19:30 UTC. There, I hope the rally is dead now. It was seeing your post here that was affecting the chi in the feedback loop, it had nothing to do with numbers. OK, perhaps this will have the intended effect: [ from here ]
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205
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 08:27:25 PM
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I haven't seen this kick in to a full blown feedback loop yet, I bet if you start posting Chinese slumber predictions again you could kill it. I'll LOL had if you do, hell i promise to short a little.
The basic Chinese Slumber Method is trivial, just take the Huobi 1h chart on Bitcoinwisdom, switch to UTC time, line drawing mode, and connect the last two Slumber Points -- mean price in the last two 19:00 UTC candles. We just went through one. Then shift the plot so that you can read the line's value at the next 19:00 position. A slight refinement is to skip Slumber Points with visible volume bars, like yesterday's. Connecting the points of May/21 nd May/23 I get ~3380 CNY for tomorrow May/24 ~19:30 UTC. There, I hope the rally is dead now.
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206
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 07:33:42 PM
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You'll get used to the feeling of confusion, I'm sure. Hope you'll stick around when we're back to 1200 and beyond, will be interesting to see the rationalizations you'll come up with.
I find it amazing how people can put their money into something, without knowing where the profit will be coming from -- and without wanting to know. Jorge I think your statement illuminates your bias. I have shown my bias in many other posts, but here I am simply urging you traders to seek for the causes of price moves and trends, since I cannot see how you can make good predictions without that information. The probability of this rally continuing to 2'000 USD/BTC can be near zero or near 1, depending on whether it is due to people dodging Bitstamp's "enhanced KYC" requirements or to the opening of some new bitcoin-based e-commerce service that is attracting many new bitcoin users in the US.
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207
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: May 23, 2014, 06:03:43 PM
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Dear @BitcoinWisdom, in case you care: Yesterday I spotted several pairs of consecutive entries out of chronological order in Bitstamp's transaction log, as displayed in your chart: ... # 2014-05-23 02:14:51 2014-05-23 02:14:56 # 2014-05-23 03:13:05 2014-05-23 03:13:09 # 2014-05-23 03:12:59 2014-05-23 03:13:02 # 2014-05-23 03:12:34 2014-05-23 03:12:36 # 2014-05-23 03:17:14 2014-05-23 03:17:16 # 2014-05-23 03:24:26 2014-05-23 03:24:31 # 2014-05-23 03:43:30 2014-05-23 03:43:33 ... I did not see any such things in Huobi's transaction logs, so it must be Bitstamp's fault. Do not know about other exchanges.
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214
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 02:06:01 PM
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You'll get used to the feeling of confusion, I'm sure. Hope you'll stick around when we're back to 1200 and beyond, will be interesting to see the rationalizations you'll come up with.
I find it amazing how people can put their money into something, without knowing where the profit will be coming from -- and without wanting to know.
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215
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 01:33:20 PM
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Still no ideas of where this rally is coming from (China, West, ...), nor why?
It seems that the price stops increasing for 2-3 hours around 19:00 UTC every day, which is 03:00 in China. So I would think that China STILL sets the price.
Perhaps some Chinese exchange already started operating offshore, and is in beta-test by selected clients?
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219
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2014, 01:27:41 AM
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A guesstimate at best obviously but more than 10,000 traders [in Western exchanges] for sure. Gox had a million accounts, can't you glean something from that!
Mark said that MtGOX had a million accounts, but analysis by @rpietila of the leaked database gave less than 70'000 accounts with 0.001 BTC or more, 27'000 accounts with 1 BTC or more, and 9'000 with 10 BTC or more: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.msg5619502#msg5619502(Note that @rpietila uses mBTC = 0.001 BTC as the unit of bitcoin.) Since active traders must be a subset of the clients with bitcoin balances (with relatively few exceptions), the number of significantly active traders at MtGOX, near the end of its life, must have been even less than those numbers. On the other hand, those 9'000 MtGOX clients with 10 BTC or more had almost all of the 950'000+ bitcoins that should have been in MtGOX's wallets (according to that database, which may not be truthful). MtGOX actually had only 220'000 BTC it seems, no one knows what happened to the other 730'000. [troll]Perhaps he sold them to some Chinese whale in September 2013, at 150$ each.[/troll] Nobody can tell for sure where the buying sprees are coming from that's why, you'd be a fool to suggest you could for sure for a start.
I am fairly sure that the Oct-Nov rally and various other jumps, drops, and trends were Chinese things passively copied by the West. I still don't know about the Mar/03 jump, not this week's jumps. Traders should be dying to know the answer to this question, I would think...
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