1501
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 12, 2015, 09:04:27 PM
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Where are all the predictions and YouTube videos for bitcoin going over $10,000?
How is that any more ridiculous than Apple having a market cap of $700 Billion? in order for one BTC to be worth $10,000, the market cap would only have to be $210B or less (depending on how many bitcoins have been mined when it happens), less than 1/3 of Apple Corp's current value. Well, when you buy some Apple stock, you become owner of a slice of a huge company, that makes 70'000 USD of profit every second, by manufacturing and selling more than 10 million high-quality computers and smatrphones per month, that people literally give a kidney for. Whereas, when you buy a bitcoin....
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1502
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Economy / Speculation / Video of My(Bit)Coin convention in Thailand?
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on: February 12, 2015, 08:23:20 PM
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This video has been posted to reddit as being another MyCoin.hk convention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGT3QL5VWPkIt says "My BitCoin" in the opening shots and many places, but on T-Shirts (mostly in the second half) it says "MyCoin" only. There are a lot more than 30 (or 43) people there. One of the overhead shots shows some large amounts, over 300 M (HKD, USD, CNY, or what?) If it is MyCoin.hk, there may be a lot more than 43 victims. If it is not MyCoin.hk, what venture is that? The overhead texts are in Chinese...
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1504
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: February 12, 2015, 07:48:21 PM
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So that's an average investment of about 136.000 USD/day since inception. While an inflation rate of 3600 BTC/day corresponds to 792.000 USD/day at todays prices. [ ... ] I was just looking at the plots in your graph though, but I shouldn't be off by that much.
No need to read the graphs for that: the number of coins that they held and bought, day by day, was tabulated by @jl2012. See page 1 of this thread. Only the last plot, the Est. Accum. Investment, is not in the table; but it is easily computed from it.
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1507
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 12, 2015, 06:31:33 PM
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For those who care about SecondMarket's BIT fund, here is a plot of data tabulated by @jl2012: [ Blame the forum admins if the image shows truncated; click on it for the full-size version. ] The first four plots are taken from the tables in that thread. The red line is the share value, equal to the USD market price of 0.1 BTC, by definition. The fifth plot ("Est. Accum. Investment", purple) was computed by me: it is the estimated net dollar amount that was invested by clients, assuming that each change from one day to the next was either all investment or (rarely) all liquidation. With this assumption, since the foundation until today, clients appear to have have invested ~68 M USD in the fund, while the value of all the bitcoins held by it is ~30 M USD. Recall that the fund has suspended redemptions (withdrawals, liquidations) since 2014-10-29. Note the four large steps last November, corresponding to 6000-7000 BTC each. These atypical investments may be due to a single investor. I wonder if they are the cause or consequence of the small rise in price at that time.
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1508
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: February 12, 2015, 06:22:41 PM
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Here is an update of the plot of @jl2012's data that I posted last April: [ Blame the forum admins if the image shows truncated; click on it for the full-size version. ] The first four plots are taken from the posted tables. The fifth plot ("Est. Accum. Investment", purple) was computed by me: it is the estimated net dollar amount that was invested by clients, assuming that each change from one day to the next was either all investment or (rarely) all liquidation. With this assumption, since the foundation until today, clients appear to have have invested ~68 M USD in the fund, while the value of all the bitcoins held by it is ~30 M USD. Note the four large investments last November, corresponding to 6000-7000 BTC each.
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1509
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 12, 2015, 01:30:32 PM
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It is usually neocon/monetarist governments who build up unpayable national debts
Not that I disagree, but I'd like to point out that in fact, all national debts are, in practice, unpayable. To prove my point: could anyone name a single country that successfully paid their national debt? ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debtCountries with zero debt: Singapore Macau British Virgin Islands Brunei Liechtenstein Taiwan Palau Taiwan is actually the only one I wouldn't have counted on. I'll take that as the exemption which proves the point. But, as noted above the table, some countries are also international creditors, and they may have negative net debt. The note claims that Italy is one such country. That would be cruel, because it would means that Italian taxpayers have to skip lunch to pay interest to foreign banks, and non-Italians have to sell their grandmas to pay interest to Italian banks; whereas they could do what the French once did and get done with it.
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1510
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 12, 2015, 11:55:13 AM
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Greece has to hit the big red RESET button because all the rest are pussies and don't have the balls to call an end to that which is inevitable anyway, and only made worse by delaying. Keynesian economics is fundamentally broken, that much is known, the long run has arrived, for the love of Zeus, hit the button already, let the chips fall where they may.
Keynesian economics implies government spending at the base of the economy, not making debts. The spending can be financed by taxes, even inflation tax. Borrowing from banks and later bailing them out are the opposite of Keynesian policies. It is usually neocon/monetarist governments who build up unpayable national debts, hold the bank profits to be more sacred than salaries and pensions, and make banks richer by imposing "austerity" on the rest of the population.
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1511
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucked us over again
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on: February 12, 2015, 11:20:24 AM
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Don't get me wrong. I am waiting for all these to happen, but by the looks of how things are moving, BFL and all their clowns don't seem to be so scared about this. We saw a short trial regarding the SR dark market, but this is moving damn slow!
SR was much bigger and involved more serious crimes; the investigation started in 2012 maybe, they arrested Ross in early Oct/2013, and the trial concluded in late Jan/2015 (at least 16 months later). The FTC started investigating BFL sometime in 2014, it seems, and raided them in Sep/2014, not even 5 months ago. Give it time.
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1515
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucked us over again
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on: February 12, 2015, 12:36:39 AM
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The OP for this thread hasn't posted on the forum in almost a year. How strange.
Many users have stopped posting on this forum over this last year.
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1516
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Economy / Speculation / Re: FAKE news: "3 billion HKD lost" in Mycoin.hk bitcoin exchange runoff
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on: February 12, 2015, 12:25:33 AM
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Yeah, 43 victims so far, may not get to 100. Mark claimed that MtGOX had more than a million users, but when the leaked database was analyzed, it was found that only 70'000 accounts were minimally active. So his numbers were bloated by a factor of 15 at least. If the same factor holds here, it would be 200 accounts. By the way, here is a video that seems to be a 2014-03-12 congress of MyCoin.hk clients: http://my.tv.sohu.com/us/201860874/69946081.shtmlThe Westerner with grey hair presumably is William Dennis Atwood, the vanished CEO of MyCoin.kh's parent company. EDIT: I counted 7x8 tables with 8-10 chairs each, so there were about 450 people in that event.
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1519
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 11, 2015, 03:34:25 PM
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How could a faucet be profitable ? You havent heard about adverts ? Wait, is this thread about to become an advertisement space? Is advertising a bad thing? Oh this thread is not about advertisement ? Well, how many advertisements are unanswered questions? Does my advertisement answer your question? Is there any question mark in it?
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1520
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 11, 2015, 02:56:35 PM
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In order to access the silk road you had to first register which took a few seconds, no email confirmations or anything required.
You just had to type in whatever "username: blablalblabala" "password: w983z9r8h2" and boom there you go a new account and you could check what the site was.
I guess a lot of people who heard about the silk road and were interested in knowing what it was were forced to register an account every time they wanted to check the site out of curiosity.
Thanks!
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