1602
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 06, 2015, 11:50:21 PM
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I was at Campus Party in São Paulo this afternoon.
For the first time, I met a bitcoiner in person. A guy with a "BITCOIN" T-shirt walked by. I prudently gave him berth; who knows, he might recognize me.
While strolling around I saw a young American giving a talk on e-payments. He was showing numbers about unbanked people in various places aroud the world.
I braced myself for the moment he would say, TA-DA, bitcoin will solve all the problems of those people, and cure cancer too.
Instead he started talking about PayPal, and I noticed the "PayPal" cushions on the stage. Oh, OK.
But, when I was about to leave, he puts up a slide with wads of bitcoin bills (!) over a bed of bitcoin coins!
Turns out he was from Braintree, not from PayPal.
But, after a short mention of bitcoin, he briefly described Ripple -- and said it was a very clever idea.
(But it was Ripple the network, not Ripple the coin. Sorry @Walsoraj, I think I will not be buying yet.)
He said that Braintree was trying to integrate with those things (Bitcoin and maybe others) because merchants asked them to; and merchants were asking for them because their customers were pestering asking for them.
But he said that those things were all quite immature yet.
He also said that they (Braintree) are very positive about Coinbase and are working with them.
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1603
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 06, 2015, 03:28:51 AM
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how about we change the subject to bacon sandwiches? Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App
First, could you please turn off that annoying "Posted From" line, please, pretty please, pretty please with cream and a cherry on top?
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1604
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 05, 2015, 10:42:04 PM
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14 with an Android App in hand?
Could it be, rather, a 14-year-old person, with a smartphone in hand, with Android OS running on the smartphone, and an Android-compatible App running under the Android OS?
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1607
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 05, 2015, 02:48:46 PM
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What a clown. He expects that a new kind of money that's still very early in development needs to have a stable price right out of the box lol. Just that alone shows he doesn't even have the slightest amount of common sense so forgive me if I don't value his opinion very highly.
If it is still "very early in development", why are bitcoiners telling random people (including the third world poor) to invest in it?
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1613
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 04, 2015, 02:29:05 AM
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does anyone not think stolfi is the most annoying of all trolls?
do you think you can copy his ability to troll ? Have you ever known a man admitting that he has a small penis ? so... what does it feel to have a small penis ? Aren't you all envious of me because I have a personal exclusive troll?
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1614
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Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]
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on: February 02, 2015, 05:11:46 AM
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This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX: http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011. Is this 2011 ^ event the same event as this one?: Remembering the period when Mt. Gox had been taken offline by denial of service attacks, Shrem recounts Karpeles' reaction to the issue: “Remember Mt Gox went down the first time and it was like, a Friday, and Roger and Jessie were helping him out and Roger's [says] to Mark 'what time do you want me come in tomorrow?' like Saturday morning to help”
“Mark's [says] 'no problem, we'll deal with it on Monday', and they're like 'you're shut down, the customers think all of the money's lost, you've been hacked, everyone's flipping out, people have you know [have] hits out on you, you want to go back to work on Monday? He just didn't care about anything”. http://cointelegraph.com/news/113376/charlie-shrem-mark-karpeles-wanted-to-take-the-weekend-off-after-mt-gox-collapsedYes, of course. As others have pointed out, Jesse Powell was not a friend of Mark, but a friend of Roger Ver, who was a friend of Mark.
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1615
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 01, 2015, 10:44:36 PM
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Did you know that the anagrams for Who Cares is How Scare and Chose War?
Why would I care that the anagrams for Who Cares are How Scare and Chose War? You are the new one in this thread? Isn't everyone accepted here? Why would we exclude anyone, as long as he/she asks questionable questions? Is there any question that is not questionable? Shall we try to find one?
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1616
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 01, 2015, 08:52:46 PM
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Did you know that the anagrams for Who Cares is How Scare and Chose War?
Why would I care that the anagrams for Who Cares are How Scare and Chose War? You are the new one in this thread? Isn't everyone accepted here? Why would we exclude anyone, as long as he/she asks questionable questions?
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1617
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2015, 02:13:38 AM
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Assume all daily bitcoin volume are usefull transactions, this will give us an upper bound [to bitcoin's value as currency].
A good fraction of the transaction volume in the blockchain is definitely not payment for goods and services. Much of it is coins moving between addresses that belong to the same person, such as hotwallet/coldwallet flow. Add to that tumbling, deposit and withdrawal to exchanges, etc. Here is a summary of partial analyses that identify various non-commercial components of the traffic. Bitpay processes about 1000-2000 BTC/day, but almost all of that seems to be miners paying bills and/or equipment. Let's say that the real use for e-comemrce through BitPay it is 500 BTC/day. Multiply by 20 (wild guess) to estimate the world total by all processors and by direct bitcoin payments. We get 10 kBTC/day of e-commerce. That is still only 5% of the ~200 kBTC/day blockchain transaction volume (even after excluding apparent change-backs from the latter). At current prices, that would be about 2 million USD/day. If there were no speculation, each of the 13 million BTC in existence would be unavailable only between being bought by a customer and being sold by the merchant to another customer. If that time is at most 30 days, then the 13 million coins would be storing at most 60 million USD. That gives about 5 USD/BTC. If half the coins were locked up by long-term speculators, the price would still be ~10 USD/BTC.
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1618
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 31, 2015, 10:20:21 PM
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Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?
I'd argue there's a number of fundamentals that are highly relevant, such as overall adoption / network size, or valuation floor through usage as medium of exchange for goods valued in USD. Problem is, those are (a) notoriously difficult to estimate precisely, and (b) even if you can estimate them more or less correctly, there never was a long term stable price that would define the "right" ratio of total valuation to adoption/network size, for example. I personally think the "floor" defined by medium of exchange is the best you can do. By that metric alone, we're most likely still quite a bit overpriced, but that could either mean we drop further up to that floor or that floor isn't the only relevant metric. Probably the latter. By my estimates, even with generous assumptions about e-payment volume and coin lock-up time, I get around 20 USD/BTC at most. The current price is still supported mostly by speculation (people who buy bitcoins and hold them in the hope of selling or spending them at a higher price, minutes or decades later).
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1620
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 31, 2015, 03:05:42 PM
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People have known the Earth was round since at least the time of ancient Greece. Eratosthenes famously calculated the circumference of the globe.
This myth apparently began in an American biography of Christopher Columbus, where the man sets sail to defend his position of a round Earth against the prevailing medieval beliefs.
Indeed, among the geographers who knew that the Earth was round, question was how wide was the ocean between West Europe and East Asia. Columbus (and his investors) wanted to get to the latter, and believed that the distance in a due West course was much smaller than it really is. No one (including Columbus) imagined that Atlantic and Pacific were separate oceans, with an entire continent blocking the way, almost from pole to pole.
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