Gavin Andresen - 2011-05-09 00:17:48

I know I'm not using an actual argument in this post. Feels strange to do that, too. But I think it's safe to say that a solid consensus should not produce this outcome. There is no consensus. There is no generally accepted operating model for Bitcoin after minting becomes negligible. We better find one.

Why?  Thats years and years away.  I don't think any of us can predict exactly what is going to happen 10 or 15 or 20 years from now; I don't think it is possible to get a consensus now because there has never been a system like bitcoin before, so predicting how merchants, miners, and users will interact in 10 years seems to me to be impossible.

So:  do you think this supposed problem will happen all at once?  Or will it happen slowly over time?  If you think it will happen all at once, would there be any warning signs?  If it is a problem that we can clearly see coming, then there will be time to react.

I'm much more worried on the problems I see coming in the next year or two or three-- bitcoin-specific viruses and trojans, poorly coded bitcoin web services, and maybe bitcoin service operators getting charged with financial crimes that they didn't know they were violating.