Gavin Andresen - 2011-08-08 21:06:25

As Bitcoiner had pointed out, bubbles must be in relation to another asset. Bitcoin experiencing a "bubble" in this case seems to be tied more to global instability than the Bitcoin system itself. Rather than a bubble, it looks like a deflationary escape from other assets (not always the same ones) mirrored by a rise in Bitcoin.

I think the rise from less than $1 per bitcoin to over $30 per bitcoin was purely a speculative bubble, fueled by all the press/publicity. Even in the absence of global financial uneasiness I think a bubble was inevitable; maybe a lot of the interest in Bitcoin is/was driven by people looking for a deflationary escape, but I doubt it.  Measure bitcoin prices in milligrams of gold (the time-tested deflationary escape) and you'll still see a big bubble and pop over the last few months.

I think it will be years (if we're lucky) before a significant number of investors look at Bitcoin as a deflationary escape from other assets.

What's your prediction for the number of bitcoin bubbles over the next three years?  (measured against whatever basket of currencies or assets you like)  I based my projections on "feels about right to me."