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481
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 10:35:38 AM
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It may be that the banks re-opened after the New Year's holiday week, and money withdrawals became possible again; so that investors who were disappointed with Bitcoin's performance over the holidays immediately started dumping and taking the cash out.
And as we all know, you need to have a bank open to request a withdrawal from a web site. Here bank transfers are executed only during business hours. If that is the case in Chine too, a withdrawal from the exchange while banks are closed will only lock the money up. Clients presumably will prefer to keep playing until the banks open. |
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483
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 10:20:34 AM
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Why this is CRASHING  Actually this (mini?)crash started at 08:00 07:00 am local time in China. It may be that the banks re-opened after the New Year's holiday week, and money withdrawals became possible again; so that investors who were disappointed with Bitcoin's performance over the holidays immediately started dumping and taking the cash out. EDIT: fixed the time zone (UTC+08:00 not UTC+09:00). Would banks open at 07:00? Perhaps it is people going back to work and using their computers there? Or LAN houses opening? |
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486
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 03:51:07 AM
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Gox and Stamp $20 apart?
Mt.GOX and Bitstamp got together for a week around November 25, 2013, during the big rally; and for a couple of days around December 7, during the crash. Perhaps the person or robot in charge of setting the "GOX price" just can't keep up with fast price changes, and lets the market (even if largely locked to MtGOX) do its thing. Or perhaps they just can't handle all the people who would flee from other exchanges to MtGOX during a crash if they kept the 20% markup, so they temporarily turn it off. |
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487
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 02:29:36 AM
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heh, check virtex orderbook for the lulz
Buying BTC
Created Amount Price Value
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 849.10002 42.46 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 849.00002 42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.90002 42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.80002 42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.70002 42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.60002 42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.50002 42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.40002 42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.30002 42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.20002 42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.10002 42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 848.00002 42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.90002 42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.80002 42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.70002 42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.60002 42.38 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.50002 42.38 CAD
Jan. 31, 2014, 8:38 a.m. 2.5726/2.5726 847.50000 2180.28 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.40002 42.37 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m. 0.0500/0.0500 847.30002 42.37 CAD
that my friends is the Canadian equivalent of Willy... hahahahaaa
This slicing of orders is common. Here is my understanding of why people do that: If you post a single bid for 21 BTC @ 800, some other jerk may post his bid for 21 BTC @ 800.01, then you will not get anything until hs bid is filled. If you spread your bid into 21 bids of 1 BTC @ 790, 791, 792, ..., 800, 801, ..., 809, 810, you will ultimately pay the same amount, but now the jerk cannot get ahead of you by bidding just one penny more. If he posts 21 @ 810.01 he will lose a lot of money, if he post 21 @ 800.01 you will gobble up 10 BTC before he gets anything, if he splits his order too at 790.01, 791.01, etc. you both will get served together. So, splitting seems to be a better strategy than lumping, very roughly speaking. Does this make sense? |
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489
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 01:54:24 AM
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Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):
! Tue ! Wed ! Thu ! Fri ! Sat ! Sun ! Mon ! Tue ! Wed ! Thu !
EXCHANGE ! 01/28 ! 01/29 ! 01/30 ! 01/31 ! 02/01 ! 02/02 ! 02/03 ! 02/04 ! 02/05 ! 02/06 ! Currencies considered
MtGOX | 11.82 | 7.21 | 6.60 | 4.45 | 5.13 | 2.28 | 3.37 | 5.40 | 8.20 | 21.54 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY
BitFinEx | 13.62 | 3.87 | 8.18 | 3.91 | 4.54 | 3.15 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 5.22 | 21.11 | USD
Bitstamp | 20.04 | 7.04 | 13.13 | 7.73 | 8.30 | 4.07 | 4.93 | 7.59 | 8.48 | 20.65 | USD
BTC-e | 16.82 | 6.53 | 12.54 | 4.65 | 6.30 | 4.74 | 5.75 | 4.51 | 6.55 | 9.72 | USD,EUR,RUR
Bitcoin.DE | 0.49 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.61 | EUR
Kraken | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.59 | EUR
CaVirtEx | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.39 | CAD
CampBX | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.21 | USD
Crypto-Trade | 0.01 | . | 0.01 | . | 0.01 | 0.01 | . | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | USD
SUBTOTAL | 63.76 | 25.50 | 41.61 | 21.58 | 25.31 | 15.11 | 18.40 | 21.72 | 29.34 | 74.86 |
Huobi | 92.88 | 32.14 | 29.27 | 15.26 | 28.86 | 26.27 | 24.77 | 18.65 | 19.55 | 39.97 | CNY
OKCoin | 52.37 | 29.11 | 18.56 | 17.11 | 20.38 | 20.00 | 18.09 | 12.77 | 12.33 | 26.07 | CNY
BTC-China | 6.45 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 1.17 | 2.31 | 2.21 | 1.70 | 1.33 | 1.54 | 4.09 | CNY (NOTE 1)
SUBTOTAL | 151.70 | 63.19 | 49.82 | 33.54 | 51.55 | 48.48 | 44.56 | 32.75 | 33.42 | 70.13 |
TOTAL | 215.46 | 88.69 | 91.43 | 55.12 | 76.86 | 63.59 | 62.96 | 54.47 | 62.76 | 144.99 |
All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors. For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included. Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion. Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day. For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".) (NOTE 1) On 2014-01-30, BTC-China had a burst of extremely fast, regular and atypical transactions, all with similar amounts (a few tens of BTC) and prices (~4836 CNY), adding up to about 41,050 BTC. The burst started suddenly around 17:00 UTC and and stopped suddenly around 19:30 UTC. Presumably those transactions were made by a faulty robot trading against itself or some other robot, and did not represent actual exchange of money and bitcoins between distinct individuals. Therefore those anomalous transactions were subtracted from the BTC-China volume for Jan/30. |
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491
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 12:45:48 AM
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PS. Still hypothetically speaking, suppose that you own an exchange and your clients have entrusted you with 100.000 Bitcoins.
Suppose further that the Bitcoin price is 100$ and has been stable for a while.
Thus your company's current assets include a pile of bitcoins worth 10 million $. But that is a totally unproductive asset, like having a pile of cash locked in a safe.
So you decide to sell most of those coins at other exchanges and invest the money into stocks or something that will yield a return. You take care to leave a reserve in a "hot wallet" for the occasional withdrawals. You also pick an investment that can be quickly liquidated, so that you can buy back the coins you sold if the hot wallet is not enough.
But then there is a big unexpected rally, and the Bitcoin price eventually stabilizes at 800$.
Some of your clients eventually want to withdraw their bitcoins; some sell them at your exchange, for 800$, and want to withthdraw the money.
Either way, you now owe 80 M$ to your clients, but still have only 10 M$ invested in stocks...
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492
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 07, 2014, 12:15:11 AM
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Some of us still have assets with Gox. Should we just die as well?
MtGOX has been buyig bitcoins for 10% or more over market price, on the average, at least since Sep/2013 -- if not much earlier:  Many people would rush there to sell bitcoins, few if any would consider buying there. So, who is buying those coins? How could they keep paying those over-market prices for so many months? If, hypothetically speaking, they have been playing Ponzi with their clients' coins, then no amount of waiting or complaining will get all those coins back. Some clients might get lucky, but the last ones in the queue would lose. In fact, the longer a Ponzi scheme is allowed to operate, the bigger the damage: the victims will keep increasing, and, once the scheme has begun to unravel, their assets will keep shrinking. (As for their "reassuring" words in that message: I suppose that a Ponzi scheme cannot be called "fractional banking" unless it is done by a bank...) |
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494
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 06, 2014, 10:30:21 PM
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I am not using a proxy or a shared IP and get that 502 error. As the downtime (502 error) is not persistent i guess its just a lot of users a.k.a the prime time effect.
I am in Brazil. I have been getting that 502 error often (several times a day, randomly) over the past few weeks or so; but a simple page reload usually fixes it. |
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495
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: February 06, 2014, 08:47:39 PM
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When the crosshair cursor is placed over the order book plots, juts to the right of the main chart, one gets the price computation for selling and buying the speified amount of BTC, e.g. Buy 32.81 BTC will cost 158323 CNY and price will reach 4825.0.
Sell 32.81 BTC will receive 158323 CNY and price will reach 4825.0.
The average price of cost and receive is 4825.0 CNY/BTC.
In the BTC-China site, due to their "market taker" fee structure, the lowest ask and the highest buy are usually largish but separated by only 0.01 CNY. As shown in the abve example, this detail (whih seems moderately important for that site) is lost by the rounding. The accurate results would be, I believe Buy 32.81 BTC will cost 158323.3281 CNY and price will reach 4825.01.
Sell 32.81 BTC will receive 158323 CNY and price will reach 4825.
The average price of cost and receive is 4825.16405 CNY/BTC.
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497
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 06, 2014, 03:51:32 PM
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Looking again at the charts, I now think that the current "mini-crash" started at
22:54 UTC at Mt.GOX,
23:03 UTC at Huobi, Bitstamp, BTC-e, and Coinbase
23:06 UTC at BitFinEx and OKCoin
At this time I can see Houbi's data only through the 3-minute chart at bitcoinwisdom, so "23:03" actually means "from 23:03:00 to 23:05:59".
Those are the first 3-minute intervals when there was both a significant drop in price and a significant surge in volume.
If I am not mistaken, 23:03 UTC is 08:03 am in China and Japan.
The mini-crash may have started at Mt.GOX and spread to the other exchanges. Or perhaps that Mt.GOX spike and drop were an unrelated coincidence, or both resulted from similar external causes.
Anyway 08:03 is a bit on the early side for Huobi; its trading often starts in earnest only around 09:00 or 10:00.
08:00 sounds like a plausible bank opening time after holidays. Perhaps that was the moment when the Chinese exchanges enabled CNY withdrawals again?
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498
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 06, 2014, 01:26:44 PM
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And dont forget that China's banks are opening soon so maybe we dont stop at 825.
Some travel guide sites say that many banks should be open already, but with reduced hours. Is that true? If so, that may explain why Huobi's volume today is already 50% higher than yesterday's, and why prices dropped there. As for BTC-China, their order book shows two orders of ~100 BTC bracketing the current price with a 0.01 CNY spread, an expected consequence of their Market Maker rewards. However, its price is trying to follow Huobi's, but with a delay and by sudden steps of about ±10 CNY. Right now it was 4825 when Huobi's was 4815. Indeed BTC-China's 0.03% market-taker fee is about 15 CNY, so that market-maker does not need to move his offers until the spread relative to Huobi's price gets close to ±15 CNY. However, a small market-taker now would have to pay 4840 to buy at BTC-China, or would get only 4810 if he sold there; whereas at Huobi he would have good liquidity and a better price in both cases. Since most of Huobi's transactions are under 10 BTC, it does not seem likely that the BTC-China market-maker reward will attract much volume. And if there is no volume, it may not even attract many market makers. |
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499
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 06, 2014, 03:00:35 AM
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I don't trust China at all and never will.
One should not trust governments in general. However, if it wasn't for China: * the price of a Bitcoin would still be US$ 10 or so; * therefore, Bitcoin exchanges would not be moving hundreds of millions of dollars a day; * therefore, there would not be a swarm of entrepreneurs buzzing around Bitcoin, trying to get a slice of that money; * therefore, mainstream media would not pay any attention to Bitcoin; * therefore; only computer nerds would know about Bitcoin; and... * therefore, there would be no Dogecoin.  |
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