I tried that approach once, and it took me less than an hour.  It shocked my voynichologist colleagues, who did not know that side of my character, but the manuscript didn't even flinch.  Tough mystery indeed.

Not agressive, just informative. Like a warning at the zoo, "do not  feed the bear, especially with your hand."

Is that above or below the clouds?  (Below the clouds there should be little greenhouse effect anyway, methinks, since little light gets down there. And above the clouds the shorter wavelengths should be refleted off to space without conversion to infrared, so I would expect no greenhouse effect either.)

Today (Tue Mar/04 00:00--23:59 UTC) the toal volume on the monitored exchanges was 507 kBTC, about 10% less than yesterday's (560 kBTC) .

However, the total volume in China increased 6% (from 397 to 422) while outside China it fell 48% (from 163 to 85).

WIth those changes, China's slice of the total volume was 83%.

Among the exchanges outside China, Bitstamp fell to second place, having lost 57% of the volume (from 64.91 to 28.03 kBTC).  BTC-e lost only 31% and thus got barely ahead of Bitstamp, with 28.83 kBTC.  Bitfinex lost 51% and fell to third place, with 25.03 kBTC.

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  02/24 !  02/25 !  02/26 !  02/27 !  02/28 !  03/01 ! 03/02 !  03/03 !  03/04 ! Currencies considered

  BTC-e      |  20.78 |  73.86 |  33.61 |  14.60 |  12.74 |   9.55 |  4.58 |  41.71 |  28.83 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Bitstamp   |  51.84 | 115.76 |  49.11 |  17.05 |  22.63 |  14.30 |  6.44 |  64.91 |  28.03 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  27.16 |  94.55 |  37.71 |  12.04 |  15.29 |   8.62 |  3.13 |  50.92 |  25.03 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   1.06 |   2.23 |   1.87 |   0.89 |   1.34 |   0.39 |  0.32 |   2.82 |   1.81 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.73 |   2.23 |   1.00 |   0.50 |   0.70 |   0.31 |  0.32 |   1.34 |   1.02 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.30 |   2.15 |   0.32 |   0.31 |   0.33 |   0.15 |  0.19 |   0.55 |   0.33 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.37 |   0.42 |   0.36 |   0.05 |   0.07 |   0.08 |  0.07 |   0.28 |   0.14 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 102.24 | 291.20 | 123.98 |  45.44 |  53.10 |  33.40 | 15.05 | 162.53 |  85.19 |                     

  Huobi      | 163.47 | 352.76 | 250.64 | 123.38 | 122.00 | 104.12 | 40.64 | 253.71 | 268.47 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     |  84.03 | 275.68 | 150.41 |  83.60 | 129.17 |  73.29 | 34.99 | 126.48 | 137.35 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |  13.12 |  27.72 |  14.72 |   6.71 |   7.17 |   5.02 |  2.64 |  16.59 |  15.36 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.53 |   1.10 |   0.53 |   0.31 |   0.29 |   0.30 |  0.24 |   0.67 |   0.64 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 261.15 | 657.26 | 416.30 | 214.00 | 258.63 | 182.73 | 78.51 | 397.45 | 421.82 |                     

  TOTAL      | 363.39 | 948.46 | 540.28 | 259.44 | 311.73 | 216.13 | 93.56 | 559.98 | 507.01 |                     


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

Wow, thanks, I am flattered.  I don't know if I can provide more data, but I will try to produce even longer charts.  Would that help? 

After today's roller coaster, I am sure that no one cares to know that the Chinese Slumber Predictions for today, namely 3370 CNY for Huobi and 551 USD fo Bitstamp, were quite off the mark, by 680 CNY and 112 USD, respectively. So I will not tell you that.

You probably don't care to know either that since Huobi's clients were all in bed by 3:00 am,  today is a True Slumber Point.  It would be pointless to observe that, therefore,  the previous trend is no longer valid.  I am sure you don't remember me promising to never again deduce a trend from a single data point,  so you will just ignore my doing so now and will pay no attention to my prediction that tomorrow Wednesday Mar/05 at 19:00--19:59 we will have the same soup that we had today, namely 4050 CNY at Huobi, 663 USD for Bitstamp.  

EDIT: tomorrow is Wednesday not Tuesday, sorry.

Those seem to be very good recommendations, and is good of you for posting them.

However they remind me of some instructions for what to do in case of nuclear attack, that were widely circulated sometime during the Cold War. Something like this

1. Go indoors and stay away from doors and windows.

2.  Get under a table or desk.

3. Sit down and hold your legs tight against your body.

4. Bend your head down, between your knees.

5. Kiss your ass goodbye.

And indeed my wolrdview does not exclude cryptocoins, nor biitcoin specifically.  As I wrote, I wish that they succeed as e-payment method, and I will certainly use them if and when they will be better for me than other means.

Note that that is quite different from "cryptocoins making national currencies obsolete", "cryptocoins being/becoming a good investment", or "bitcoin being worth more than X dollars".

I say "cryptocoins" rather than "bitcoin" because bitcoin is obviously only one of them, and any of them would serve for that otiginal goal.


One excuse for that is that it helps me keep neutral.  Fom watching the bitcoin scene, I now strongly suspect that if I owned  even one bitcon, I would start looking for "bullish" facts and thoughts and ignoring "bearish" ones, would prefer models that show its price going up, would wish for more people to invest in it, would wish for the other altcoins to fail, ....


I know that this is not the place to criticize bitcoin, and I try to avoid proselitizing.  But I have been criticized (to put it mildly) for "hiding" my negative feelings.   On the other hand, if someone posts claims about bitcoin that I believe are incorrect, why can't I reply?

As for the reactions, I don't mind people blasting my ideas.  To those who take it on my person instead, I warn again, don't push it -- you don't know what I am capable of (both in the sense of "having the means" and "having no mercy".)  Anonimity, distance, firearms, friends in the Yakuza, tears from you mom -- nothing will protect you.

With the current restrictions, it does not seem to be very useful at that.

If a Chinese citizen buys bitcoin at Huobi with Yuan, sends the bitcoins over to Bitstamp, and exchanges then for dollars there, the end result (from PBoC's  point of view) seems to be very different from him exchanging the Yuan for dollars at some international bank, or taking the Yuan to the US and changing them there.

In the first case, his yuan stay in China, and the dollars he gets come from the pockets of non-Chinese speculators. In the second case, the Yuan end up in non-Chinese hands, and can be exploited to manipulate Chinese inflation etc..  That, in my uderstanding, is why the PBoC does not seem to care anymore about bitcoin trading in the Chinese exchanges.

Then how comes the price remained stable throughout the Chinese New Year's holiday week (from ~Jan/29 to ~Feb/05), when volume was very low at the Chinese exchanges; and started to decrease, with increased volume. as soon as the holiday ended and banks opened?

The MtGOX withdrawal problems did not seem to have any effect on China, which is understandable since MtGOX is as relevant to Chinese investors as BTC0China is to western ones.  On the other hand, the announcement on Feb/10 of a "bug in bitcoin" did shake all markets, including China.

Only those who advertise it as "good investment", "chance to fix yourlife", etc.     As I said, I have no objections to gambling.

In fact, I think that catering to addictions should be a function of the goverment, at zero or negative profit, precisely to avoid any marketing that would encourage them. (Seriously.)

Here in Brazil we have clandestine (illegal) lotteries and cassinos, and an official lottery that is run by a state-licensed private company.  Some slice of the profits go to the state, to make it seem morally acceptable.  They run ads encouraging people to play; so, yes, I think they should go to jail.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away. 

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them. 

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

Because it implies that bitcoin's market value is more relaible than that of dollars and such.  It is not, of course.



Copper is useful for wires, nickel is useful for counter tops, gold is useful for electronics and jewelry... That is what I meant.  I am not saying that such money would be good, not even that this is a good definition of "solid money".

No, sorry, I can't.  You should ask whoever uses that term.

(But metal coins whose nominal value equals their value as scrap metal may be "solid money", perhaps.)

Calling bitcon "solid money" is a lie, pure and simple.  There is nothing to sustain its value, no reason to believe that cryptocoins will succeed, no reason to believe that bitcon will not be superseded by other coins.   "Fiat money wannabe" is the most optimistic description one can use, gievn what we have seen so far.

Wait, that does not say Bloomberg is going to show Bitcoin prices, only that they will show an interview with Antonopoulos (is that him?)

Well, there is this too:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1z8vaq/crowd_detectives_reveal_mt_gox_bitcoin_heist_as/?sort=confidence

So it seems that the rally was antecipation for the Bloomberg thing, then?