Bitcoin Forum
June 11, 2014, 09:48:13 PM *
News: Bitcoin Core 0.9.1 has been released. Download.
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 ... 125
41  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 02:01:00 PM
It might be wise to ignore the 'real' Jorge too  Wink
For bitcoin traders who can and do ignore the whole Chinese market, that only makes perfect sense.  Wink
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 07:52:57 AM
If BTCChina is dead then why the volume is quite high (~100BTC/hour) there?
Check the 1d charts for last 6-8 months at bitcoinwisdom.com, compare volumes of BTC-China, Huobi, OKCoin.

* BTC-China was dominant in China through 2013. It had ~13 kBTC/day in October, then ˜60 kBTC/day until ~Dec/20.  After the "five agencies decree" they stopped yuan input/output through banks and switched to a voucher system; which apparently never worked because their volume fell to ˜5 kBTC/day or less.  At some point they got a bank deposits/withdrawals working again, but never recovered their former volume.

* OKCoin started having substantial volume in November, ~40 KBTC/day (2/3 of than BTC-China).  After the December decree they too (IIRC) stopped using banks for a short while, and their volume fell to near zero; but  in January they got bank channels working again.  Their volume recovered to ~20 kBTC/day and then in February rose to ~60 kBTC/day.

* Huobi started real volume in early November, with ~40 kBTC/day.  After the December decree they continued using banks, and their volume then increased to the current ~60 kBTC.  (Presumably they took most of the BTC-China clients.)

Fee policies also contributed to the picture -- Huobi did not charge fees, OKCoin eventually abolished theirs, BTC-China resisted for a while.

There were a few short periods when the volumes fell substantially in those Chinese exchanges, e.g. the Chinese New Year's week.

There were several other significant exchanges in China (FXBTC, BTC38, etc.) which may account for 30% of the Chinese exchange volume.  Even without them, the total Chinese volume per day was about 80% of the World total.

In summary, BTC-China became insignificant after the December decrees (maybe 2-3% of the Chinese volume) and never recovered.
43  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 04:42:56 AM
On page 4, that article by Academic Prof. Kristoufek says
Quote
For examination of the relationship between the USD and Chinese Renminbi (CNY) Bitcoin markets, we use prices and volumes of the btcnCNY market which is by far the biggest CNY exchange.
But "btcnCNY" is BTC-China, which at the time the article was written (after MtGOX was found to be insolvent) was essentially dead.  No wonder his fancy wavelet method found no influence of "China" on the USD price.

He must be excused however, since his source for price series is www.bitcoincharts.com -- which STILL refuses to admit the existence of any Chinese exchange other than BTC-China.
44  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 04:10:51 AM
None of that is supported by this recent study.  http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf
That is the difference between scientific research and some forum troll.  Wink
You are right, I should have written that it in LaTeX for it to be Scientific.

Fortunately you are still free to believe whatever you want.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2014, 03:04:58 AM
Why is anyone still focusing on China? Do they contribute anything to Bitcoin development or adoption?
Because they still define the price, mostly.

Arbitrage trading tends to equalize prices among all exchanges, generally by copying the price from high-liquidity exchanges to low liquidity ones (counting as "liquidity" not only the order book but also how quickly the traders react, I guess.) That effectively means copying the price from the main Chinese exchanges (OKCoin, Huobi, BTC-China, and several others that are not listed by popular chart sites) to those in the "West" (Bitstamp, BTC-e, etc.) 

I would say that this rally, in particular, was started and is being driven by the Chinese traders.  The big price jumps (the positive ones, at least) seem to have started in China a little before they start in the West. (It hard to tell for sure, the difference is less than a minute; which is expected, because arbitrage robots must be quick or they will lose the opportunities to competitors).
46  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2014, 09:32:47 PM
Positive signs from China after they have spent a good part of the day going in the opposite direction of everybody else. But nice little rise today.

https://www.egi.com/clinical-division/clinical-division-clinical-products/ges-400-series
I have it from well placed sources that the Chinese traders have managed to connect EEG electrodes on their scalp directly to the Huobi trade API.  They are sleeping now, so those bumps that you see in the chart are merely their periods of REM sleep.
47  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Goat is a SCAMMER!!! Part 2: Revenge of the Goat! on: June 03, 2014, 10:42:25 PM
Could someone please tell that lawyer how to spell "customer"?  I am a bad speller myself, but that "custumer" is preventing me from concentrating on the legal aspects of the case.

(And please tell him/her also that lawyers say "client" not "customer", and do not use smileys when serving a legal threat.)

48  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far on: June 03, 2014, 10:31:28 PM
Thanks to San Google and Santa Wikipedia for clarifying the "giant owl" reference for me:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohemian_Grove
Quote
Jones claimed that the Cremation of Care was an "ancient Canaanite, Luciferian, Babylon mystery religion ceremony," and that the owl statue was Moloch. The Grove and Jones' investigation were covered by Jon Ronson in Channel 4's four-part documentary, Secret Rulers of the World. Ronson documented his view of the ritual in his book, Them: Adventures With Extremists, writing "My lasting impression was of an all-pervading sense of immaturity: the Elvis impersonators, the pseudo-pagan spooky rituals, the heavy drinking. These people might have reached the apex of their professions but emotionally they seemed trapped in their college years."

Indeed, one cannot make these things up.  Shocked
49  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 09:12:23 PM
check out your famous member and bitcoin supporter GOAT
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622250.0

From that link:
Quote
This loan is made in good faith, is not guaranteed and is provided on a best effort basis.
First time that I see a contract where one party is only required to do a "best effort" to comply.  Shocked

On the other hand, I had never heard of "2-year profit-only shares" before the Neo & Bee operetta, either.  Tongue
50  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 03:45:18 PM
Don't ask me, it is noy my theory.
Since you are relaying it, one would think that you found it valid in some way  Wink
I just found it in this newspost from May 26, among other theories:
http://pando.com/2014/05/26/calling-all-bulls-bitcoin-climbs-32-in-a-week-prompting-cheers-of-to-the-moon/

Still trying to understand the cause of the really. (It may even be the log trendline theory -- if/while enough traders believe in it, that alone may make it be true.)
51  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 03:39:14 PM
Pfft. Ripple.
One popular theory out there for the current BTC price rally is that people are expecting a flight from XRP to other cryptocoins, including BTC, when Jed will start selling his big stash of XRP.
And why wouldn't they have done so already?
Don't ask me, it is not my theory.
52  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Pfft. Ripple.
One popular theory out there for the current BTC price rally is that people are expecting a flight from XRP to other cryptocoins, including BTC, when Jed will start selling his big stash of XRP.
53  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 03:17:50 PM
Is Jed McCaleb selling his XRP already?
54  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far on: June 03, 2014, 02:50:31 PM
411
Quote
By Nathan Layne
In the filing, [ Sunlot ] listed Freeh Group International Solutions, a firm established by former FBI director Louis Freeh that has carried out a series of investigations into high-profile scandals, among a team of advisers it planned to tap for Mt. Gox.
Note: "it planned to tap".  Sunlot also mentioned PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) as a firm that might do the audit.  But their PR admits (and it is in their writings, apparently) that they have no agreement with PwC yet.  They plan to "tap" PwC after the takeover is approved, but if PwC does not accept their terms and price, then Sunlot is free to do whatever it pleases about the audit, and the clients who agreed to the takeover will be allowed to sit and wait.

Presumably their deal with FGIS for the criminal investigation is on the same level as their deal with PwC.

But I have a bad feeling about how this affair wil end.  Sunlot already made a deal with the major claimants who were suing MtGOX in the US (and who claimed to have evidence of wrongdoings) to retire their lawsuit.  Some big-time criminals will probably walk out of this, free and rich...

The crooks look so determined, and the bitcoiners so naive, greedy, and lame...  Tongue
55  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: June 03, 2014, 02:53:59 AM
In the plot of the order book, what is the meaning of the grey line between the bid plot and the ask plot?  It does not seem to be the arithmetic mean of the two, nor the geometric mean:

At the right edge of the plot, the mean of 3995 and 4150 (geometric or arithmetic) should be about 4070, quite a bit lower than the grey line.
56  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 01:04:31 AM
Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world?  Wink
57  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2014, 12:33:21 AM
Thus, anyone who does not consider the log trendline indicative of probable future pricing is a fringe extremist.
If you define "fringe extremist" as "someone who should not be reading or posting to this thread": yes.  Grin
58  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2014, 09:11:58 PM
Beware that it is 4:00 am in China.  Check the order books there...
what are you implying?
That there is no resistance from China against Bitstamp's upward pressure at this moment; but that may change in 2-3 hours, when the Chinese start trading again.
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2014, 08:58:35 PM
Beware that it is 4:00 am in China.  Check the order books there...
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2014, 08:49:53 PM
The photo about rptiella is obviously overexposed
Almost certainly.  Other photos of the mansion show darker and more saturated colors, e.g. on the roof tiles (unless they are fading with time).
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 ... 125
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!