Bitcoin Forum
June 11, 2014, 09:49:48 PM *
News: Bitcoin Core 0.9.1 has been released. Download.
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ... 125
321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 11:09:43 PM
There was an article 6 months ago where paypal said they were looking at btc and had been for a while.  Now they are looking at btc.  So?
wasnt that when they added "virtual currency" category
That was eBay not PayPal, wasn't it?
322  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: May 14, 2014, 10:26:28 PM
Is it possible to add a feature where we select if we want the green candle(also known as bullish candle) to be filled green inside, like the red one instead of being hollow?
Since there is no charge for asking Grin,  I would like an option to show all candles with the same color, ignoring Open/Close prices.  E.g. in Dark style:
323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 09:08:39 PM
I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!
Well, I am still doubling my BTC holdings every day since December.  Beat that!  Wink
324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 09:04:11 PM
Well, I think this article illustrates well the difference between "news" and "facts reported in the news".  Wink
325  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: SaveGox.com on: May 14, 2014, 07:16:44 PM
Not to mention we'll be releasing evidence we find to the Bitcoin community. These aren't just lost funds, they're the community's funds and everyone should be given the tools to help track them down.
As a minimum, those tools should be the complete database of trades, deposits and withdrawals.  Some clients seem to object to that, though.  Whithout that information, what could people do?
326  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: May 14, 2014, 06:46:58 PM
By the way: when drawing lines on top of a line-o plot, one should be able to use one of the "o"s as anchor for the line.  It seems that now the anchor must be one of Open, Close, High, Low. (or just High, Low?)
327  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: May 14, 2014, 06:43:19 PM
This is a simulation of the suggested style:

2-pixel stride:
-->

5-pixel stride:
-->

The real thing should look a little bit better because the simulation above did not do proper antialiasing of the blue line-o on top of the spikes.

EDIT: In the 5-pixel-stride version, the spikes could be 3-pixel-wide bars, as in the Candlestiick style.

EDIT: CandlestickHLC and OHLC are not an alternative, because the point of using Line-o is to see the weighted mean price, arguably a more informative value than Open or Close.
328  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: May 14, 2014, 05:32:50 PM
A visual suggestion: in the "Line-o" mode, show the high and low prices in each interval as light green and light red line segments extending up and down from each point, instead of filled polygonals.  I believe that they will be easier to read that way.
Do you mean make the shape looks like

o----o----o
o----o----o
o----o----o


No, I mean

     |
   | |
   o-o
 |/| |\|
-o   | o-
 |     |
 |     |
       |

I will try to edit an image and post it here.
329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 04:57:44 PM
We do not know how many coins the Chinese traders still have, in-exchange and off-exchange.  We do not know how much CNY can enter the exchanges. (The convenient channels have been blocked, but there are still some less convenient ones, and they may be enough for a few traders to move large amounts.)

Right now it seems that the Chinese traders too are uncertain about what the price will do.  Some traders probably dumped their coins and left the game, but many apparently are still there, waiting.  Volume is small compared to the good old days, but still large compared to the Western exchanges.  The latter still seem to track Huobi and OKCoin more than the other way around.

It seems likely that there will be further bad news, such as other exchanges closing, or the loss of some of those roundabout deposit channels.  However, in the short run those news may cause the price to go up rather than down, since they may create demand for BTC as a way to leave and/or continue speculating.  Eventually, however, more coins must move from the Chinese exchanges to the Western ones, so the price should go down.  The momentary dip on Apr/12, to 2230 CNY = 340 USD, shows how far down it could go.

PS. Note that the market does not react to "news", it reacts to facts (real or false) that it learns from the news...

You are saying that the following may be potential bad news:
1. Other (Chinese) exchanges closing; and
2. Loss of roundabout deposit channels.

(1) can happen to small exchanges, as had happened to FXBTC. It is unlikely to happen to large exchanges, which are backed by large VC funding. If China bans exchanges or btc explicitly, then VC funding is irrelevant. But this is unlikely. Hence, (1) has little effect on price.
Most of the fund came from bank deposits. A smaller portion came from (2). (2) should have a larger impact on price than (1). Even so, it has been priced in to a large extent owning to the ban on bank deposit.

Please suggest worse potential news. Then we can analyse its impact on price. Thank you.

FXBTC was not that small: it used to have 20'000 BTC daily volume, which is 2-3 times Btstamp's typical volume. http://www.coindesk.com/chinas-bitcoin-ecosystem-undeterred-by-fxbtc-exchange-closure/ (Yes, yes, I know, it must be "fake". Like almost everything in bitcoinland it seems.  Angry)

The VC funding for the "large" exchanges was granted back when they were thought to have found a stable compromise that would let them prosper indefinitely; some of that was granted back in December IIRC. Anyway, venture capital is by definition invested in high-risk businesses, so having VC funding will not be an obstacle for failure.

According to a Chinese article posted here a few days ago, the revenue of Chinese exchanges came mainly from trading against their own clients (exploiting both advance information about PBoC and bank actions, and "high-frequency" trading) and from interest on leveraged trade.  I suspect that their clients beame aware of the former, and that may have influenced the "five exchanges resolution".  In an effort to clean up their image before the government and perhaps win back their estranged clients, they stopped leverage trading and promised to charge fees from HFT.  Indeed, trading at Huobi, at least, seems to be much slower now.

So their revenue must have been shrinking.  Will Huobi make enough to pay their, 20(?) call-center staff and 30(?) other staff?

At the moment, Chinese traders can still use banks for withdrawals and perhaps for some deposits (e.g. to recharge their daposit cards or pay OKCoin's brokers.) It seems at least possible that these channels too will be closed. If CNY withdrawals are closed with previous warning, there may be a rush to sell BTC, hence a price drop.  If an exchange blocks CNY withdrawals without prior notice (very unlikely IMHO) price will shoot up in that exchange but drop elsewehre.

330  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: SaveGox.com on: May 14, 2014, 11:52:26 AM
Regarding convicting criminals, there may or may NOT be proof of criminal activity, and accordingly, a better result may be to attempt to make whole as many customers as possible.  We do NOT have enough information to make broad general statements to pursue one avenue at the exclusion of another, and we do NOT know the extent to which multiple avenues may be pursued simultaneously.
According to Mark, 600'000 BTC were stolen from his company, that is why he cannot pay to clients what they were due according to his terms of service. Whether he lied or told the truth, a crime obviously has been committed. 
331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 11:44:50 AM
Are we in the midst of a pump and dump? Considering the lack of volume one wouldn't think so but with the price having been slightly increasing since about 20:00 EST last night until now I'm wondering if a dump is in our near future?
At Huobi the price went up in 4 separate spurts, but has been falling gradually between the spurts.  Is that how the "pump" part of pump-and-dump looks like?
332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 06:30:47 AM
The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?
We do not know how many coins the Chinese traders still have, in-exchange and off-exchange.  We do not know how much CNY can enter the exchanges. (The convenient channels have been blocked, but there are still some less convenient ones, and they may be enough for a few traders to move large amounts.)

Right now it seems that the Chinese traders too are uncertain about what the price will do.  Some traders probably dumped their coins and left the game, but many apparently are still there, waiting.  Volume is small compared to the good old days, but still large compared to the Western exchanges.  The latter still seem to track Huobi and OKCoin more than the other way around.

It seems likely that there will be further bad news, such as other exchanges closing, or the loss of some of those roundabout deposit channels.  However, in the short run those news may cause the price to go up rather than down, since they may create demand for BTC as a way to leave and/or continue speculating.  Eventually, however, more coins must move from the Chinese exchanges to the Western ones, so the price should go down.  The momentary dip on Apr/12, to 2230 CNY = 340 USD, shows how far down it could go.

PS. Note that the market does not react to "news", it reacts to facts (real or false) that it learns from the news...

333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 04:40:19 AM
Total Output Volume
"The total value of all transaction outputs per day. This includes coins which were returned to the sender as change."
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume (Select 2 years, log maybe)

  Why is this number so constant from Jun/2013 to now, apart from the peak in Nov-Dec, when the value of 1 BTC
  has varied from 120$ to 800$ then 450$? In particular, there seems to be no change since late Jan/2014 to now.

You've been looking at bitcoin too long, Jorge.  Normal people don't consider variations in order of magnitude to be "no change".
Are we looking at the same chart?  "Order of magnitude" should be 500'000 --> 5'000'000.  I see ~836'000 on ~Jan/20, ~840'000 on May/14.  Am I reading it wrong?

EDIT: using "7 days average".
334  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: May 14, 2014, 04:19:42 AM
A visual suggestion: in the "Line-o" mode, show the high and low prices in each interval as light green and light red line segments extending up and down from each point, instead of filled polygonals.  I believe that they will be easier to read that way.
335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 03:58:40 AM
Trying to understand these charts:

Total Output Volume
"The total value of all transaction outputs per day. This includes coins which were returned to the sender as change."
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume (Select 2 years, log maybe)

  Why is this number so constant from Jun/2013 to now, apart from the peak in Nov-Dec, when the value of 1 BTC
  has varied from 120$ to 800$ then 450$? In particular, there seems to be no change since late Jan/2014 to now.

Cost per transaction (USD)
"A chart showing miners revenue divided by the number of transactions." (fom the index page)
http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction

  Is that dollars or cents?  Is the word "cost" appropriate? How is this "cost" expected to evolve in the future?

Cost % of transaction volume
"A chart showing miners revenue as percentage of the transaction volume."
http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction-percent

  Does this chart mean that the "fee" for a bitcoin transaction is now about 5%?  (Presumably almost all of that is currently
  being paid indirectly by bitcoin users through mining "inflation"?  Like if the government printed more dollars to subsidize
  the credit card fees of US citizens?  Undecided)

 
336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking on: May 13, 2014, 08:04:20 PM
The Reality:

The second picture looks fake, too.  A little reality would be nice. 
I wondered about the roof: too "clean" and the tiles too equal and regular But there is a winter 2005 picture in that Estonian Manors site apparently with that same roof and the right-side windows in the same state.  Plastic roof tiles perhaps?
337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 06:05:05 PM
The other thing is while you are right that they had to get the coins sometime and somewhere, that demand theoretically drove the price up, if that demand is lost (by spending and not buying again) how can the net gain , without new investors, be positive?
IIRC, Bitpay said that they processed about 100 M$ in payments in 2013. 

At today's prices, it would be roughly 200'000 BTC.  I wonder how much of that is spending from old hoards, as opposed from BTC bought recently at some exchange.

Anyone knows how much money they made from that?  I can't see how to figure it out from their fee policy...

338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 05:33:46 PM
Nice, but I would just have bought 75k more btc at this point.. (Hopefully Bitpay do)
I thought I read somewhere that Bitpay does not hold bitcoins, they sell them right awy.  Am I wrong?
339  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: SaveGox.com on: May 13, 2014, 05:28:31 PM
[ ... ]
In a chess match, you cannot assume that the other player will do what you would like him to do.  You must assume that, at every move, he will do whatever he can that is best for him.  If he can take your queen, he will take it, no matter how much that upsets you. If he can checkmate, he will, even if that would be a PR disaster among you and your friends.

Same here.  Doing a thorough and honest audit, distributing the 220'000 coins fairly to clients, starting a criminal investigation to find the other 600'000 coins and distributing them to clients -- that is what you would like Sunlot to do; but that is completely irrelevant when trying to predict  what they will do.  You must ask what they can do -- ethical or not -- that will result in most money for them.  This includes telling lies, falsifying and omitting documents, making secret deals with anybody, etc.. 

(And then there is the issue of the two different criteria for distributing the coins, by final account balance or by input/output balance.  Each choice is good for some clients but bad for others.  Sunlot obviously has chosen which clients it likes the most.)

To set things clear, I could not care less about whether MtGOX clients get their coins back or not.  What I want is that all the criminals involved in the MtGOX scam and anyone who tries to help them get taken out of circulation and deprived of their money.  Anyone who doesn't like being robbed should want that too.
340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 12:26:36 PM
I read that if they relaunch, they will offer 16% to the former Gox clients, so if the business succeeds they would actually get something back from this black hole.
Threads about it:
Savegox.com
More proof that savegox.com is a sham
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ... 125
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!