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483
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 27, 2014, 08:12:05 PM
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Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction. Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]
No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid. The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small. From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time. |
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484
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 27, 2014, 05:15:38 PM
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In fact, I'd place my bets on some really stupid fake FUD leak coming out on Monday saying that the coins sold for $200 a piece or some shit.
That would be pathetic amateur FUD. Professional FUD will be more like this "Source inside the USMS revealed that only three of the 10 lots were bidded at, and the bids were so low that the USMS decided to cancel the auction, since the paperwork needed to execute the sale would mean a net loss for the US Treasury. The coins will be returned to the FBI, and will likely be used by the agency to trap llegal e-commerce sites, money launderers, fraudulent exchanges, and the customers thereof."  |
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485
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: June 27, 2014, 04:08:48 PM
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[ ... ]
2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367 --> 2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367
2014-06-27 02:43:59 | 582.67 | 0.03466 --> 2014-06-27 02:44:00 | 582.72 | 0.30400
2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398 --> 2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398
[ ... ] Is is possible for a transaction to be displaced by several minutes when the log is reordered by timestamp? I think it is not needed. It is bitstamp only issue, and doesn't have good solution. because the trade type is missed, reorder only won't solve the issue and will make the code more complex and decrease the charts performance. Several seconds unexpected offset is not big problem. My question was not meant to be a suggestion for Bicoinwisdom, sorry for the confusion. Of course it is Bitstamp who should fix their act. I meant to ask whether the timestamps problem and lack of trade type could explain why 0.03466 BTC became 0.304 BTC (almost 9x) with a different price. If the entries can be displaced by several minutes when refreshing, that could explain it, perhaps... It is ironic that Bit stamp is the only exchange that cannot get the time stamp right.  (And, by the way, the omission of the trade type is another thing that their clients could think that it was meant to hide front-running and other order manipulation. Yet another reason for them to fix their API.) |
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486
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: June 27, 2014, 03:01:49 PM
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Hi, it is me again...
I already wrote some time ago that Bitstamp's transaction log (the lower right sub-window) usually has a dozen or so entries out of order every hour,
This problem occurs only with Bitstamp, not with BTC-e, Bitfinex, Huobi, or OKCoin. You explained that it is some technical problem on their side, having to do with them using separate computers or databases forAPI trades and manual trades. (Did I understand correctly?)
Bitstamp doesn't contain trade type info, so there is different when the first load and updating in realtime. The trade type is guessed base on previous price when initialize. In realtime it is base on current price and orderbook. Also there is no timestamp in realtime, it's simple set as server time when receive the trade. so it is different with initialize data which is always use the true timestamp. Thanks for the explanation. But why would that affect the prices and amounts so much? E.g.in the second transaction below [ ... ]
2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367 --> 2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367
2014-06-27 02:43:59 | 582.67 | 0.03466 --> 2014-06-27 02:44:00 | 582.72 | 0.30400
2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398 --> 2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398
[ ... ] Is is possible for a transaction to be displaced by several minutes when the log is reordered by timestamp? |
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488
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 27, 2014, 01:13:27 PM
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very very few investors - even professional ones - are capable of behaving like Warren Buffett, and buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. Most move with the herd and with conventional wisdom.
I undertsand that WB did not make his fortune just by buying high and selling low (!): he bought a failing company and managed it for many years until it got profitable again. |
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492
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Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts
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on: June 27, 2014, 05:27:42 AM
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Hi, it is me again... I already wrote some time ago that Bitstamp's transaction log (the lower right sub-window) usually has a dozen or so entries out of order every hour, e. g.
2014-06-27 01:27:49 | 581.06 | 0.90985
2014-06-27 01:28:32 | 583.70 | 0.12139
2014-06-27 01:28:35 | 583.70 | 0.01592
2014-06-27 01:29:54 | 583.89 | 0.51166
2014-06-27 01:29:57 | 583.97 | 0.93952
2014-06-27 01:29:53 | 584.00 | 1.89133
2014-06-27 01:29:58 | 584.49 | 0.27701
2014-06-27 01:30:02 | 584.59 | 0.09477
2014-06-27 01:30:04 | 584.64 | 0.03455
This problem occurs only with Bitstamp, not with BTC-e, Bitfinex, Huobi, or OKCoin. You explained that it is some technical problem on their side, having to do with them using separate computers or databases forAPI trades and manual trades. (Did I understand correctly?) But the bugs seem to be worse than just trades being reported of order. If I refresh the Bitstamp chart after it has run for some time, I many differences show up all over the trade log: timestamps change by several seconds, entries get merged or split, and BTC amounts are rounded off differently (e.g., 2.0000 versus 1.9999). Sometimes entries appear, disappear, or change radically. For instance, the left and right halves of the table below are matching sections of the transaction logs captured before and after refreshing the page, sorted by the timestamps:
2014-06-27 02:41:26 | 579.69 | 0.19999 | 2014-06-27 02:41:26 | 579.69 | 0.20000
2014-06-27 02:41:30 | 579.69 | 0.20000 | 2014-06-27 02:41:29 | 579.69 | 0.20000
2014-06-27 02:41:42 | 579.69 | 0.19999 | 2014-06-27 02:41:42 | 579.69 | 0.20000
2014-06-27 02:43:41 | 581.59 | 0.13100 | 2014-06-27 02:43:41 | 581.59 | 0.13100
| 2014-06-27 02:43:43 | 581.61 | 0.02851
2014-06-27 02:43:47 | 582.27 | 0.64365 | 2014-06-27 02:43:47 | 582.27 | 0.61513
2014-06-27 02:43:52 | 582.47 | 0.13873 | 2014-06-27 02:43:52 | 582.47 | 0.13873
2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367 | 2014-06-27 02:43:56 | 582.61 | 0.10367
2014-06-27 02:43:59 | 582.67 | 0.03466 | 2014-06-27 02:44:00 | 582.72 | 0.30400
2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398 | 2014-06-27 02:44:04 | 582.77 | 0.24398
2014-06-27 02:44:08 | 582.91 | 0.29504 | 2014-06-27 02:44:08 | 582.91 | 0.29504
2014-06-27 02:44:12 | 583.06 | 0.09733 |
2014-06-27 02:44:12 | 583.06 | 0.36631 |
2014-06-27 02:44:14 | 583.21 | 0.21029 |
2014-06-27 02:44:15 | 583.36 | 0.03428 |
2014-06-27 02:44:16 | 583.48 | 0.03462 | 2014-06-27 02:44:16 | 583.48 | 0.41083
2014-06-27 02:44:18 | 583.51 | 0.06889 |
2014-06-27 02:44:19 | 583.53 | 0.03461 | 2014-06-27 02:44:19 | 583.53 | 0.06889
2014-06-27 02:44:21 | 583.58 | 1.05500 | 2014-06-27 02:44:23 | 583.66 | 1.14992
| 2014-06-27 02:44:25 | 583.68 | 1.90715
2014-06-27 02:44:55 | 583.58 | 0.03461 |
2014-06-27 02:44:55 | 583.68 | 1.96746 |
2014-06-27 02:45:11 | 583.20 | 0.01792 | 2014-06-27 02:45:10 | 583.20 | 0.01792
2014-06-27 02:47:24 | 582.62 | 0.17500 | 2014-06-27 02:47:24 | 582.62 | 0.17500
2014-06-27 02:50:55 | 583.02 | 1.23464 | 2014-06-27 02:50:55 | 583.02 | 1.23464
Note in particular the entry at 02:43:59 on the left side, that got replaced by an entry at 02:44:00 on the right side, with different price (582.67 became 582.72) and different amount (0.03466 BTC became 0.30400 BTC). I suppose that these differences, like the trades out of order, are due to bugs in Bitstamp's chart data server. The Bitstamp owners should fix these bugs, they are bad for their image in many ways. For one thing, they are annoying complications for people who try to analyze these logs. (Which is the real chronological order: that implied by the timestamps, or the order of the entries in the log?) These "bugs" would also be good covers for front-running or other unethical manipulation of the orders, and therefore may have a negative impact on the confidence of their clients. |
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494
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: June 27, 2014, 01:00:58 AM
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Been gone for a while due to health issues but everything is OK now; just kind of took a break from the madness of crypto and is it not good that I am feeling better?
Welcome back, is there anything more important in life than good health? |
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495
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 27, 2014, 12:28:04 AM
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would [ the USMS ] even sell gold bouillon if it was reprocessed or just hold on to it?
I believe that any seized currency, US or foreign, is sent straight to the Treasury, since they know how to handle it. I don't know about gold (or silver) in bulk, but I would bet that they do the same, for the same reason. The purpose of auctions is to convert other kinds of property -- cars, houses, jewelry, equipment, bitcoins, etc. -- into dollars so that they can be sent to the Treasury too. |
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497
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 26, 2014, 05:16:05 PM
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"We’re the backbone of the entire Bitcoin industry,” says Kodrič, 25, who’s wearing a black t-shirt with “Zero Excuses” in fluorescent green capital letters. “The wallet services, ATM machines, mining companies all rely on us. The price of Bitcoin is the de facto price on Bitstamp. We’re the to-go exchange.” Is this the guy?  |
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498
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: June 26, 2014, 05:01:05 PM
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^They are waiting to buy the FBI seized coins (silk road and some other and 3000 BTC donations to their addresses). You can't expect any uptrend before that, because lower the market price - lower they buy it, less $ for FBI.
They should not have to depend on that. They should make profit even buying coins at the market price, and they must have sources (miners etc.) who can provide a couple thousand coins per week, at or below market price. Most likely they not finding clients willing to lock their money for six months into a fund whose shares have lost 10% of their nominal value in the last two weeks. |
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499
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Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat
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on: June 26, 2014, 04:37:48 PM
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The frogs boil in the pot because they never realize they are boiling until they are already dead. The sheeople are the same.
Hello? The resources and consensus has already accomplished and is already under way.
True, but fortunately we now have the means to fight that. We only need to design a good anonymous cryptocoin, and convince the US government to let us market it on NASDAQ. Then we can live the rest of our lives, freely and anonymously, in the basements of our cabins in the woods -- laughing while we watch the governments crumble and banks go bankrupt, for them not being able to find and steal our fabulous all-digital wealth. |
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Now that is bullish news! 
