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501  Economy / Economics / Re: How profitable are exchanges? on: June 26, 2014, 10:15:17 AM
Within 15 miles of my house there are 67 Bitcoin businesses.  The large companies are the holdouts.
Do they take bitcoins, or do they take dollars from BitPay-like companies (that sell your coins and give the dollars to the merchant)?
502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2014, 10:10:09 AM
Why Bitcoin’s Scoring in Argentina
Now this is the kind of news I like to read. [ ... ]
What I see is a marketing push by SecondMarket and Pantera to convince Argentinians that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation (!) and therefore they should invest in SMBIT and PBP.   Which are not doing well in the US, meh?

It is Neo & Bee for Argentina, only with marketing and muscle upped an order of magnitude.  And not managed by a small-time crook.
503  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: June 26, 2014, 05:39:23 AM
And is it not true that a fool can ask more than 10 wise men can answer?
I don't think so, why do you?
May I respectfully disagree with your disagreement?
504  Economy / Economics / Re: How profitable are exchanges? on: June 26, 2014, 02:58:33 AM
I would find it plausible that Chinese exchanges were trading using their own funds for profit and were making a lot of money. I would also say that this practice can be extremely risky and would make holding funds at these exchanges risky as well.

This recent interview with Bobby Lee (CEO of BTC-China) is quite relevant to this question:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg7510644#msg7510644
505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2014, 02:07:15 AM
probably  most will sell for some discount, how much of a discount we will never know
Indeed it is unlikely that we will know right away, unless the USMS makes another "oops" with their emails.  Winners and losers and almost-but-not-quite-bidders may go public claiming this and thats, but it would be naive to trust them.   Many of them will have strong motivations to lie, in every possible direction. 

However, I would think that there is a reasonable chance that the closing prices can be obtained through a FOIA request.  If the identity of the buyers is not revealed, that information alone cannot be considered private; on the other hand, it is obviously essential for  public overseeing of the government revenue and spending bla bla bla.  But of course it would take months, if it works at all, so it would be of interest to historians only.
506  Economy / Economics / Re: Would u pay in bitcoin? on: June 26, 2014, 01:44:46 AM
a merchant could afford to offer a 3% discount for paying in bitcoin and would have profits stay the same (no net cost). The customer would need to pay the coinbase "fee" of ~0.32% but would still end up paying ~2.68% less then they otherwise would. This is not only a lower net cost to the customer but the costs are more transparent.
Ok, ok, but how does the customer send the money to Coinbase?
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 11:36:14 PM
So the marshals forgot to mention if or how and when they will announce the result? Well that's depressing (for the bitcoin price).
Dear @Erdogan, if you did not have me on ignore, you would know the answer. I posted it twice already.  Wink
508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 09:39:40 PM
Those "regulated Bitcoin exchanges" on Wall Street [ will ]  be happy to take your real Bitcoins and give you dollars they borrowed into existence, and they'll be happy to give you paper Bitcoins for your Dollars, but when it comes time to actually redeem your paper Bitcoins for real ones it will turn out they won't have any.
I had understood that NASDAQ or other "Wall Street exchanges" would let people trade shares of bitcoin based investment funds like SMBIT and the Winklevoss ETF, not bitcoins directly.  Or are there plans to have both?
509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 09:35:03 PM
The Winklevoss ETF is not yet selling shares, is it?

Can US citizens/residents buy shares of SMBIT and PBP? (AFAIK, SMBIT must explicitly authorize each client, and shares cannot be sold or transferred without their authorization.  Do they authorize if the client is a US resident?)
510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 09:10:29 PM
The US Government auctioned the coins now because it is not supposed to hold on to seized property. 
This is a factual error.  The USG often retains seized property and uses it as it sees fit.  It's one of the perks of being allowed to seize property.  If you like something, you take it.  If they can't afford a law suit to get it back, it's all candy.
I stand corrected: they are not supposed to hold on to property which they cannot use for public good in some way.  (Note, "supposed to", of course.)
511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 07:51:44 PM
Jorge became a cultist some time ago... I clearly remember that he wrote that he doubled (or tripled?) his BTC portfolio. Todays drop was clearly Jorge cashing out because he needed a little extra cash for the auction.  Smiley
Actually I did not buy nor sell any coins today, but the USD value of my holdings doubled again, nevertheless.   Wink
512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 07:49:46 PM

Quote
Mark Williams, a former bank examiner and now lecturer at Boston University, said the interest from Pantera and SecondMarket amounts to “a speculative bet, not of new buyers, but the same market promoters.”  “This auction doesn’t validate Bitcoin but simply demonstrated that the U.S. government is anxious to get out before prices drop again,” Williams wrote in an e-mail. “The U.S. Marshals Service has over 29,000 reasons to sell by private auction and sell now.”

Methinks he is fantasizing here.  The US Government auctioned the coins now because it is not supposed to hold on to seized property.  So they set up the auction as soon as the court cleared it --- in the government's sense of "as soon as", which in this case was "only" a couple of months later.

The article also confuses these coins with the "DPR seized coins".
513  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: June 25, 2014, 07:35:33 PM
Isn't the whole point to this thread to get an answer to your question in the form of a question?
Right, didn't someone say that one can recognize a learned man by his answers, but a wise man by his questions?
514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 06:10:40 PM
Thanks for cutting my post into half, don't do that again. I guess you agree with point 2 and 3. [ ... ]
It is good etiquette to trim the posts you are replying to, leaving only the parts that are relevant to the reply.  However I should have added "[ ... ]" to show that parts were omitted; my apologies for being lazy.
515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 04:51:50 PM
Of course they are going to bid above market price.
1) You can't see what the others bid, so you have to make your bid count.
That would be true if their goal was "I MUST GET THOSE COINS".  But the goal of people who play that game is "I MUST PROFIT".  They figure out what is the price that would give them the best expected profit, and bid for that. If someone else bids higher, they would think "what a fool".
516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 03:56:19 PM
Another interesting tidbit from China:

http://www.btc38.com/btc/altgeneral/2329.html
香港比特币大会小组讨论——比特币在中国:现在与未来
Hong Kong Bitcoin Conference Panel Discussion - Bitcoin in China: Present and Future
2014-06-25 13:50:26
Quote
Xu Star (OKCoin CEO): "This example of it: the central bank issued a circular said banks can not support Bitcoin transaction, but the bank itself also needs to make money, so they will help us to circumvent this policy to continue to cooperate.

Mining has done well, a lot of mines, China occupies 30-40% of the market, so that China has great influence, if you can force the operator to come together is very powerful. China now needs more cooperation, whether you like it or not, China will be an important role in the field of Bitcoin. Once over the front, regulators will have more responsibilities and tasks."
[ Google translation ]
517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 03:45:05 PM
This Chinese article seems to have an interview with Bobby Lee (CEO of BTC-China) about shady practices of exchanges, in particular leverage trading, and the "five exchanges" pledge to clean up their act,and the fact that Huobi and OKCoin backtracked on that pledge a month after it. (Was that the cause of the late May rally?)

http://www.btc38.com/btc/altgeneral/2330.html
李启元:融资融币是“不健康的恶意做空”
Bobby Lee: finance financial currency [ leverage trading? ] is "unhealthy malicious short"

2014-06-25 14:00:40
Quote
Bitcoin Conference in Hong Kong (Inside Bitcoins HK Conference) 6 月 24 -25 days held on, CEO Bitcoin China (btcChina) trading platform Lǐ Qǐ Yuán (Bobby Lee), on the Bitcoin currency finance financial business, the media, said: Financial currency financing is unhealthy malicious short. When the media asked "A lot of players think: Prices fell short because someone maliciously" is justified when Bobby Lee agreed.

Bobby Lee said: finance financial currency [ leverage trading? fractional banking? ] is unhealthy thing, although some people want to have this speculative function, but does have irresponsible (players).

[ ... ]
 
Bobby Lee also clear said: Chinese law does not prohibit bitcoins. But he also believes that sophisticated financial institutions, various types of transactions are highly regulated, and regulators clearly Bitcoin transactions done enough: You see some of the sophisticated financial institutions, they are monitored very powerful, banks, ah, ah equity line , on the margin there are very strict supervision. But now there is no regulatory bitcoin, some companies let finance financial currency, it is very irresponsible.

Bobby Lee further explained: you put the coins to me, I might secretly loaned out to others, to sell the price down, then later the price down, buy him back, he earned a lot of money. So if he does not make money, he bought it back, then you become a deficit, so the entire finance financial currency is risky.
 
He referred to the "finance financial currency" business, financial transactions in the traditional model, is not uncommon, but bitcoin regulatory environment compared to traditional regulatory margin trading business as a whole is more stringent.
 
China Bitcoin currency financing business financing, generally rise at the end of 2013. The business expanded investor's trading varieties, but also increased frequency of transactions. But the business model, in fact, not new. In the stock, commodity, foreign exchange and other trading ...... varieties, like business has been very mature.
 
However, due to certain factors, early May 2014, China bitcoin five trading platform (Huobi.com, BTC-China, OKCoin, CHBTC, BtcTrade), industry self-regulation was jointly issued a statement bulletin "pause currency finance financial business." But the reason paused, apparently considering various basis and is not entirely consistent. Feedback from investors point of view, it seems to convey some kind of disagreement: Support was expressed for self-declaration also expressed opposition or contempt.
 
Within a month's time, however short-lived, self-declared after the release, Huobi.com and OKCoin has restored financial currency financing business. This makes the self-declared before, looks a bit awkward.
 
The key issue seems to still fall on the interpretation of financial currency financing business itself, Bobby Lee expressed concern: national governments also have ideas on this matter, and this is part of their reason to suppress bitcoin. So we have not done this thing, and we have been very bitcoin China abide by the rules, do not play with the financing of financial credits, but it does have a number of other exchanges in the mess.
 
Known financial commentator Xiao Lei is expressed similar concerns, he believes, currency financing business financing can be short, the equivalent of financial derivatives, if not the bank for hosting all of the funds entrusted in the trading platform hosting, it is prone to illegal fund-raising and other financial risks: "In fact, greater market fluctuations in the volume of business financing when the financial currency, fee income trading platform to bring Bitcoin is also very impressive, and the opening of business finance financial currency trading platform for bitcoins it is less risky. '
 
Xiao Lei said: At present the central bank's financial attributes bitcoin completely stifled Bitcoin sharply reduced liquidity for Bitcoin trading platform has a greater impact, however small this event for Bitcoin itself influence.
 
About Bitcoin regulation, often involving real-name system, anti-money laundering, the approving authority units ...... so a series of rules developed. Interpretation of the status quo trading platform differences arise, it is understandable today. I believe that with industrial development and in-depth study of the legal experts, the future trading patterns and regulatory bottom line will be more clear.
518  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: June 25, 2014, 03:13:03 PM
The question is, what are you talking about?
Im talking about…what is he talking about…what where we talking about again?
Are we really talking, or just throwing questions to the wind, for which we expect no answers?
519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 12:39:07 PM
How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.
The 0% fees surely are the main reason for the higher volume, but that does not make the volume "fake".  Fake volume is transactions where both parties are the same entity.  If the two parties are distinct competing entities, it is not fake.

While I have no proof that Huobi's volume is legit, if it is fake it is very well done.  OKCoin's has a ~10% component that looks fake.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.
Funny, I have seen quite the opposite in general, although there are possible exceptions (the March/13 jump being one).  OkCoin and Huobi change fast, have a very small spread, and track each other very closely, within a dollar or less; while Bitstamp changes slowly, in coarser jumps, and has a very wide spread.
520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 11:53:56 AM
If I were bidding, I would bid well above market, in order to help the cause by fostering optimism. Unless I was bidding with MY money, in which case I would think a bit more carefully about the idea.
This is an excellent point!
But... my point actually was that rich people generally did not become rich by investing in worthy but unprofitable deals...

By the way, looking at the charts of Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex, Huobi, and OKCoin, side by side, it is absolutely obvious that China is still setting the price alone, and the "West" is merely trying to follow, with delay and hysteresis (because of their fees).  OKCoin not only has a lot more volume, but makes 10-30 transactions, including maybe a couple of crashes and rallies, while Bitstamp barely makes one.

And the Chinese don't seem to care much about the SR auction, or about those Western businesses that are "accepting bitcoin" (actually, accepting dollars from the sale of bitcoins by believers who decided to unload some of their holdings).
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