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541
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 10, 2014, 12:15:30 AM
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If... and only if... this drop was based on the fake Chinese news, then I don't see reason for further drop.
On March 21 a rumor came out that the PBoC would close the bank accounts of bitcoin exchanges. The rumor caused a sharp price drop, especially in China. That rumor was denied on the same day by the PBoC, through their Weibo (Chinese Twitter) account; and the price immediately recovered. On March 27 the rumor was renewed, this time by a reporter from a respected news agency, who claimed to have seen a draft of the circular. Price took a new plunge. Some people were still skeptical at first, but gradually it was confirmed: bank input channels would have to be be closed by April 15. Price kept dropping. On April 15 some banks said they still had not received the circular and kept the exchanges' bank accounts open. Optimism returned an the price jumped back. But on April 25 the ban was confirmed: new plunge. So, perhaps the price has not recovered fully this time because the people suspect that the same thing will happen with the UnionPay rumor: denial at first, but eventually confirmation. |
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542
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: December 09, 2014, 11:42:22 PM
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The syndicate was organized by SecondMarket, but it has nothing to do with SMBIT.
In principle, SMBIT should buy bitcoin only when some investor buys SMBIT fund shares. After months of stagnation, there were some large buys by SMBIT over the past month.
What are large buys exactly? And where is this info listed. BIT should go live very very soon. I think Barry held off to get this batch of coins cheaply before BIT goes live and drives the price up significantly. I also think this is what gave Barry Silbert the guts to bid higher than everyone else; he knows BIT is a done deal. Check page 1 of this thread. user @jl2012 has been tabulating and interpreting the data posted by SMBIT on their site. You may be confusing Barry Silbert's SMBIT fund with the Winklevoss twins' COIN ETF. The COIN ETF is still waiting for approval by the SEC. No expected date for a decision. SMBIT has been alive since 2013-09-25, but is not traded on any open market. A client has to buy SMBIT shares in dollars from the company that manages the fund; the company then buys BTC for him (1 share = 0.1 BTC, at the current BTC market price) and keeps them safe. After six months the client has the option to continue holding the shares or to liquidate them, i.e. sell them back to the company for dollars (still 1 share = 0.1 BTC at the current BTC market price; minus some storage and processing fees). Clients are not allowed to sell the shares to anyone else. SMBIT had promised that "soon" there would be some open market for their shares, so that clients could trade them among themselves. I believe the original promised date for that was Q2 2014; is this right? That hasn't happened yet. (Is that what you meant by "go live"?) |
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543
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 09, 2014, 08:22:53 PM
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I know lots of people like her followed reptilia ardently, but look where he is now. Somewhere pumping some scamcoin and playing some forum-based medieval kingdom RPG to blend out the dire reality. It's sad.
To his credit, I recall him saying, a couple of months ago, that he went into bitcoin to make money, not to "chase unicorns"; and would be pulling out if the price did not recover soon. I even think that he mentioned selling his Malla manor, but I am not sure. |
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544
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucked us over again
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on: December 09, 2014, 07:42:18 PM
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Is there a TL;DR somewhere?
Yes, but it's kept at the Vatican for safekeeping.  Wikipedia: The Vatican Secret Archives have been estimated to contain 52 miles (84 km) of shelving,[4] and there are 35,000 volumes in the selective catalogue alone. |
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545
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: December 09, 2014, 06:08:50 PM
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Bought by the syndicate, to be distributed to individual bidders. Some will probably stay with BIT, but some will probably go elsewhere. The syndicate was organized by SecondMarket, but it has nothing to do with SMBIT. In principle, SMBIT should buy bitcoin only when some investor buys SMBIT fund shares. After months of stagnation, there were some large buys by SMBIT over the past month. |
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546
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 09, 2014, 06:05:11 PM
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Some politics for the sceptics here. Many of you may, right about now, have comprehended that Greece has been the paradigm of EU politics with austerity measures that outraged the citizens and teared apart all the social structures.
It would have been a better paradigm if the people had revolted, and kicked the monetarist government out. Austerity measures are not meant to cure a crisis, but to profit from it, transferring an inordinate amount of wealth from the people to the bank owners. But, of course, it is easy to demand revolution in other people's countries.  |
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550
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Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet
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on: December 09, 2014, 08:41:54 AM
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Jorge, I hope you bought your computer and cell phone at the computer and cell phone factories respectively. Because everybody knows that people have sensitive personal and credit card data + some have bitcoin wallets on their devices so it's important to buy from the factory instead of a vendor and even then you are not 100% sure!
For the time being I will be "enjoying" the spectacle of BlockChain.info going down the tubes. Let's resume this conversation when fake malicious Trezors appear and steal some significant piles of coins, shall we? By the way, the BCI debacle happened because someone decided to "improve" the random number generator in their javascript code, and posted the new version for download by clients, late at night, without thorough validation by a security specialist. Result: (ahem) hundreds of users received weak keys, some smart hackers noticed, and (ahem) emptied the addresses of those users. The extent of damage is still unknown. That bug was noticeed and fixed after a few hours; what if it had been there for days? Cannot ever happen to the Trezor firmware, of course. You mentioned fake ATMs. If anybody planted those or if I opened a fake bank branch then people would loose money, but I don't see banks warning their customers about their product not being safe. There is no "if": fake ATMs have been around since the very first real ones were deployed (in the 1970s, IIRC). I read a story of a customer who complaining to a Wells Fargo cashier about their ATM, that had been aborting transactions for days. "What ATM? We do not have an ATM!" The crooks had installed a fake ATM on the rear wall of the bank, facing the parking lot. Fake ATMs were endemic here in Brazil when credit cards were of the magstripe kind (as they still are in the US). Most commonly the thieves placed a false front cover over the real one, with a malicious card reader and key logger. They seem to be less common now that all credit cards use chips instead of magstripes. But banks do warn clients to watch out for such false covers, and they inspect their ATMs for that and other tricks. Who will inspect the Trezors on sale at Walmart, ot those bargain ones sold through eBay? |
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557
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 09, 2014, 04:49:27 AM
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I'm too lazy, but if anyone has some spare time, he could do the following: Determine when the auction results were declared to winners. From then on, observe charts for unusually high selling volume, because clever arbitrageurs will hedge immediately. Less clever arbitrageurs will have had to wait until the BTC were sent out, so determine whenever that is/was and look again for unusual volume (after 6 confirmations time minimum).
From the USMS announcement: On Friday, December 5, by 5:00pm EST, the USMS will notify the winning bidder/bidders that their bid/bids has/have been selected. The transfer of the coins to the individual bidders (minus the last 2000 BTC block) was registered in the blockchain on 2014-12-08 16:29. (Or is that the date the transaction was issued?) The Blockchain.info times are UTC, I presume; so the transfer to bidders would have occurred on 11:29am EST. That is ahead of the deadline for bidders to send the payment, which was 2:00pm EST, on Monday. Presumably they all had wired in the money much earlier. The last 2000 BTC block got transferred on 2014-12-08 19:05 (13:29 EST?). |
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559
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Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet
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on: December 09, 2014, 02:40:42 AM
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I would even add to not store more than 50 BTC on a single Trezor (~$20k). If you have more BTC, diversify your risk with multiple Trezor units. $120 over $20k is equivalent to about 0.5% storage fee - not too bad! This way, if JorgeStolfi prophecy comes true  - you wouldn't loose everything in one transaction ... Good advice... as long as you don't buy all your Trezors from the same guy on eBay, or the same Walmart store.  |
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