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1661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 01:14:09 PM
I disagree on so many points that the implications of debating every single one of them really discourages me. Sorry Jorge i feel that's not a good behaviour from me to pull back like that and i apologize for that

Too bad, I would like to know what is wrong with them.  Do you disagree with the numbers?

The total transaction fees, for example, seem to have been stuck at 10--15 BTC/day (not kBTC!) since December, and are slowly decreasing in fact:
https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

1662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 01:07:31 PM


Good try, but I find that proof somewhat unconvincing.  Is that the best you can do?   Grin

As for Huobi, if you find it hard to disprove that 90% of the blockchain traffic is "fake", maybe you can provide evidence that any of Huobi's volume is "fake", in the same sense (a trader selling to himself).
1663  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 02, 2014, 01:03:13 PM
How could I answer if someone else is worried about something?
What's wrong with him?
Is he taking these questions personally?
1664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: US Marshall's Bitcoin Auction Results on: September 02, 2014, 01:01:53 PM
Has anyone gotten a response to FOIA requests looking to determine the price that this auction closed at?
You still have a couple of years wait for that one.
I thought that there was a much shorter deadline for responding to a FOIA request (2 months? 3 months?)
1665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 12:23:03 PM

No hard numbers, of course.  (But who cares for numbers if there is a large colorful pic.)
1666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 12:18:48 PM
Huobi’s Fixed-Return Financial Product Sells Out in One Hour
http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-fixed-return-financial-product-sells-one-hour/

If they guarantee X% minimum return in CNY, that is simply Huobi borrowing CNY at a fixed interest rate. So?

If they guarantee X% minimum return in BTC, that is not "low risk" investment at all; and the deal will be most lucrative for Huobi if the BTC price drops. 

Anyway those 2000 BTC provided by the investors will be immediately sold for CNY to pay for the hardware expansion.


1667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 12:04:36 PM
Also, what is the point in wasting fees by transacting over wallets with the same owner? Unless you prove metcalfe's law wrong the only achievement of such waste is to keep the price (value) of bitcoin high, so i take it you mean it's a speculative manipulation.
Even so, with a true wallet-to-many scenario (OpenBazaar) the percentage you are proposing here are doomed to shift.

Two obvious reasons why someone would want to move bitcoins between wallets of his own are (1) tumbling and (2) hotwallet/coldwallet management.  Someone may also be (3) torture-testing wallet software.  (All the blockchain traffic could easily be created by a single person with a modest BTC capital.)

Last time I checked, very few transactions included fees.  Right now the mining network is financed by "printing" new bitcoins, to the tune of 10% of the existing bitcoins per year.  (That is, 10% yearly inflation, in the strict sense of the term...)  Since address creation and transactions are free, there is nothing to discourage fake blockchain traffic.

Fake traffic may include also (4) intentional attempt to inflate the transaction volume.  Right now, if the cost of the mining network were to be paid by fees rather than "inflation tax", the fee would have to be nearly 4% of the total transaction amount.  But if fees were charged then the "fake" volume would all but disappear.  If only 50% of the transactions are real e-payments, then the cost of processing one transaction would be 8% of its amount; if only 10% is real, the cost would be 40%.  Thus someone may be inflating the volume to hide this unpleasant fact.

Some blockchain traffic is also (5) people depositing and withdrawing BTC from exchanges and other services with individual accounts.  Although that traffic is not "fake" by my defintion, it is still sort of fake because the BTC on the exchange still belong to the client, logically. 

(Bitcoins changing accounts inside the exchanged do not generate blockchain traffic, but they are not real e-payments either, since there is no counterpart transfer of goods or services -- merely a swap of one currency for another.)

Metcalfe's law seems to hold when the quantities are plotted in logscale over the last 5 years.  However, the last year is compressed to a tiny area at the top right corner of that plot.  At that scale, a deviation of 90% would hardly be noticed, since it would span less than 20% of the vertical scale.  If the data is plotted only over the last year, the fit is not that good.  And, anyway, if the traffic had been 90% "fake" over the last 5 years, Metcalfe's law would hold just as well.
1668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 10:54:19 AM
Don't drink and trade.  Wink
1669  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 10:53:47 AM
Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.

Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.

More than 90% of the transaction volume (transaction count and total BTC output) on the blockchain is "fake" -- that is, between addresses with the same owner. 

Prove that this statement is wrong.

(Evidence that it is correct: the way it has changed with time for the past year.)

1670  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 02, 2014, 06:14:16 AM
Asking them to sign a message with a known Bitcoin deposit address perhaps
If the court has access to the deposit logs in user accounts should be possible to get that done
Why would the court want to send money (or bitcoins) to someone without knowing his identity?
1671  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 03:25:42 AM
3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens
... (there is some justification for that hope)...
Jorge, that is positively bullish for you!!

Why do people consider me a bear?  

Although I am as skeptical as ever about bitcoin's ultimate success, I have said many times that I won't dare to guess what the price will do in the short or even medium term.  I can see scenarios where it may drop to ~150$ or less (e.g. China dumping everything and dropping out of the market) and scenarios where it may get over 1000$ again (e.g., a lot more demand in the US/Europe), although I would rather not guess the probabilities of those scenarios.  

The guess of a bottom at ~450$ is based on the fact that the price appeared to be stable at that level from Apr/28 to May/20, and bounced at that level on Aug/18. My tentative interpretation of those facts is that
* 450$ is the "consensus" price that the Chinese market found after the PBoC stopped interfering with bitcoin;
* the rise starting May/20 was due to rumors of some impending positive develpment;
* the fall from Aug/10--18 was due to those hopes being deflated; and
* the bounce after that was just a "dead cat bounce"

1672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 02:34:40 AM
2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)
3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

Well, if one intends to sell, one should first tell everybody "trust me, now it is a good time to buy and hold".  Wink

People are probably confident that the price will not go below 450$ (there is some justification for that hope), and eventually will rise again. 

1673  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 02, 2014, 02:28:04 AM
Also it's hillarious that previous customers needs to identify themselves to get access to their funds. Lots of accounts are already verified. God knows where all the ID-papers are today...

I don't see why it is hilarious.  How could the court return the spoils to the clients, without knowing who they are?
1674  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 02, 2014, 12:16:16 AM
I am sure that would be even harder to follow.
Don't you think?
Actually, isn't there already such a thread, in the form of e1ghtSpace's "The statement Game!" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=638190.0)?
Good to know, but since finding answers is supposed to be harder than asking questions, will that thread ever catch up with this one?
Why do you care?
Don't you worry, for example, that having all clocks turn clockwise could mess up the rotation of the Earth?
1675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 12:06:09 AM
Unlike Bitcoin hodlers, they plan to *sell* their shares if the market's right.  If they have no plans to sell in your hypothetical, then you have a valid question--what the hell are they doing?

Collectig dividends (although Apple has been notorious for holding back dividends as reinvestment and cash reserves, IIRC).
1676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2014, 12:04:13 AM
2014! Year of bitcoin!

So who's first to admit that they were completely, utterly wrong?

A prudent bear will wait until 2015-01-01 to ask that question.  Wink
1677  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 02, 2014, 12:01:45 AM
"Today is not the recovery rate is known, nor the way in which the quantities (legal tender or BTC) is known be returned. However, keep in mind that Japanese law compels the return yen, although the judge responded that given the peculiarities of the case perhaps can be made otherwise."

http://afectadosmtgox.blogspot.com.ar/
I saw that detail in several other posts.  However I believe that he actually said something closer to "we may look into it".  But in Japanese culture (the old-fashioned one at least)  a flat-out "no" is considered too rude, and that phrase could be just a polite way of avoiding to say "we do not intend to" (which would probably have elicited some angry responses from the crowd).

Anyway, that is not the question I asked.  The question is how the claims of each client are to be computed: by the balances in the final MtGOX ledger, or by deposits minus withdawals.  Whether the recovered amounts are returned in BTC or yen is an independent decision.

From the point of the courts, using the MtGOX ledger seems dicey.  One problem is that there may be no way to ensure that the ledger has not been tampered with, or even that the accounts belong to the claimants.  Whereas, the money deposits and withdrawals can be certified by the banks, and those in BTC can be partially verified in the blockchain.
1678  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 01, 2014, 11:40:27 PM
I am sure that would be even harder to follow.
Don't you think?
Actually, isn't there already such a thread, in the form of e1ghtSpace's "The statement Game!" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=638190.0)?
Good to know, but since finding answers is supposed to be harder than asking questions, will that thread ever catch up with this one?
1679  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 01, 2014, 10:03:52 PM
We have already discussed this point on Gox Self-help some time ago. It has been shown that probably a majority favor the "last balance" solution. This also fits well with your assessment. We had agreed so far:

"The remaining assets in Bitcoins should be distributed to creditors
proportionately to their final Bitcoin balance (as seen on mtgox.com).
The remaining assets in legal currency (FIAT) should be distributed to
creditors proportionately to their final currency balance (as seen on
mtgox.com)."

https://wiki.olivere.de/goxwiki/ClaimsGoxSelfHelp
(Auth needed)

There are a lot pro and cons but overall - I think - every other solution would be much more complicated and would be perceived as unfair by the most people. That will not fly by. People want the 200,000 coins divided fair. People want there money and Bitcoin is money.

The problem is that the client's opinion may not be relevant, if there are laws/precedents that determine how claims are assessed.  If the law says to use method X, and one client tells Kobayashi that he prefers method X, it will almost certainly be method X.  Even if all clients say that they prefer method Y, Kobayashy may say, "sorry, I must follow the law and use method X; thereafter you get together and re-distribute the spoils among yurselves as you like".

That question should be posed to Japanese bankruptcy lawyers and/or to Mt. Kobayashi.  Didn't any clients retain Japanese lawyers to advise/represent them at the meeting?
1680  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 01, 2014, 09:30:27 PM
What did I just read?
Why you didn't quote the above question?
Do you think I can't read the thread's title?
Do you think it is that simple?
By that, do you mean a simple question that may have a complicated answer, or a question of arbitrary complexity that has a simple answer?
Abiding by this thread's title -Answer the question above with a question. -, (note to self: fresh up on comma after dash proper usage) how the fuck did I miss this question?
Did you aim at it while drunk?
Wasn't this question just answered?
It depends, which branch of the question chain is the good one now?
I don't know do you know which is the correct one?
Can somebody please answer the above?
Will the next question below suffice?
Who is going to answer all these questions?
Should we start another thread,  'Answer the previous answer with an answer', just to keep the universe in equilibrium?
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