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1881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2014, 04:03:33 PM
I'm not sure how accurate it is, but a Coindesk article from a few days ago (http://www.coindesk.com/margin-trading-crash-price-bitcoin/) gave a good hypothesis: margin trading.  A lot of people borrowed money on margin to buy at the end of May, which led to the rally.  Now all of those trades are being undone as people's positions are being liquidated due to margin calls.  That seems very plausible.  I just wish someone had made light of that (prominently) in June.
Maybe. I know nothing of margin trading beyond the basic idea.  Those calls that expired at the end of May, when were they made, and for how much?  Was their volume compatible with the amounts involved in the rise?

@Mimitech suggested the Dell adoption as the causing event, and @walsoraJ pointed out Jed McCaleb's threat to sell his huge holding of XRP.  Maybe too.  However, I would first look for a cause in China.  Could that be the opening of the international branches of Huobi and OKCoin? Or some leak from the government? 
1882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2014, 03:53:56 PM
We have been through this before... lots of people have explained or expressed their opinion that you are wrong in your assertion/theory/guess,  and you just do not seem to listen, anyway I am taking a rain check on another slow dance.
Yes, many people here do not agree with my opinions.  I read theirs. So?
1883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2014, 02:58:39 PM
wow... you have spent too much time on this thread Jorge...  you are sounding more and more like a troll lunatic/Bitcointalk.org member/one of us than an academic that anyone would take seriously, shame for you.  

The language may be a failed attempt to be funny but the opinion is quite serious.  What we saw since May/20 was a sudden rise from ~440$ to ~640 that no one can (or wants to) explain, then seven weeks of wandering around 600$, then a sudden drop back to ~470, that no one can (or wants to) explain either.   Why is it absurd to consider all that as a single event?

I have proposed a partial explanation: starting May/20, a few people got wind of something that made them buy all they could.  Now those people changed their minds, and dumped everything back.  So the price got back to where it was.  Is this so much sillier than the narwhals(*) that people have been discussing here?

(*) a large sea mammal reputed to be a cross between a whale and a unicorn.
1884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2014, 02:42:21 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen, you have just watched /The May 2014 Bitcoin Bubble/, complete, performed by the Peking Opera Buffa Company.  Now back to our regular programming.
1885  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 18, 2014, 02:09:59 PM
what if it's an illusion of a concept?
Is that something you falsely believed that you had looked up in an imaginary dictionary?
1886  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 18, 2014, 02:34:58 AM
Would you be angry at me if I broke your response nest chain? :3
What are you talking about?
Could he be referring to an illusion of continuity that sometimes prevails in this thread, in spite of our best efforts to make totally pointless?
1887  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 17, 2014, 10:14:27 PM
Is this a question with a dot at the end, or what?
Since that is obviously not "a question with a dot at the end", did you mean to write "is THAT a question with a dot at the end, or what?"?
Uh - me like dots long time?
Is that a reference to "A, B, ........................", which was a postcard that Iva Matrix once sent to Martin Gardner?

How close am I?
Not much I am afraid, why don't you google "several days before the meaning suddenly came to me"?
1888  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 17, 2014, 05:42:08 PM
Is this a question with a dot at the end, or what?
Since that is obviously not "a question with a dot at the end", did you mean to write "is THAT a question with a dot at the end, or what?"?
Uh - me like dots long time?
Is that a reference to "A, B, ........................", which was a postcard that Iva Matrix once sent to Martin Gardner?
1889  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 17, 2014, 03:49:40 PM
Is this a question with a dot at the end, or what?
Since that is obviously not "a question with a dot at the end", did you mean to write "is THAT a question with a dot at the end, or what?"?
1890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 02:31:12 PM
although an older revision of his WP article said that he's a major crypto investor
Yeah, I cannot deny that my views on bitcoin and bitcoiners were noticeably amplified by that incident, in spite of my efforts to maintain an objective view of the topic.   Tongue
1891  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: August 17, 2014, 01:11:53 PM
Quote
* Impossibility to re-flash the device with malicious code
Does this mean we won't be able to flash updates on the trezor? Like updates you could provide us that offer more functionality to the device?
No, you are wrong.  I have already updated the code on my Trezor once and expect more updates in the future.  The important word to pay attention to in that sentence is the adjective malicious.
... that actually should be "code not signed by Satoshi labs".  A hacker who wants to load malicious code into your Trezor would have to get hold of their signing key, or trick them into signing his code, or trick you into ignoring the device's warning.
1892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 01:05:12 PM
but at least he (Fonzie) claims to be making various investments in BTC.... and you?

You mean, help pay for Winklevum and Winklevee's new Ferrari?  Sorry, I am not smart enough for that.
1893  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: August 17, 2014, 12:45:35 PM
Do you think that this thread is a little pointless, or not?
It is very absolutely pointless, what are your thoughts?
If it is pointless, as you say, why is it so popular?
1894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 08:13:07 AM
now is the bottom?
If I were forced to predict the bottom, under pain of having emacs removed from my computer, I would say around 450$.  That is what the price was on May/19, before the buying sprees that lifted it to 650$.  That guess assumes that the traders who did all that buying have changed their minds and are dumping all that they bought.
1895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 07:52:27 AM
Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC.  If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.

Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon",  they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.

So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?
Have you seen the research on bankless ATM's?
I was referring to recent events about Coinbase and LBTC.

About the bankless ATMs, I have read the article, and pointed out one problem (fake bills being input by a customer and dispensed to another).

I think you spend too much time focusing on problems rather than solutions.
When I started college and became a trainee at the univeristy's computing center, my first task was to help other students find bugs in their programs.  I have been looking for bugs in programs almost every day, often many hours a day, for the last 46 years.  I cannot shake off the habit any more...
1896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 06:51:25 AM
Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC.  If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.

Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon",  they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.

So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?
1897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 06:37:43 AM
On résiste à l'invasion des armées; on ne résiste pas à l'invasion des idées.
That was before they invented television and Google and the takedown notice...
1898  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucks us over again on: August 17, 2014, 05:41:47 AM
I bet that come Monday morning BFL will be in serious damage control mode. Can't wait to read how Josh is going to spin this revelation, hoping like hell he denies that Nitrowolf is him, for then it'll really be stuck up his ass.
To be frank, I don't think they're going to give a shit.  Really, none of this really means anything, nor does it matter.  I despise thrm like everyone else, but what's posted here really isn't anything worth getting frothy about.
That's my bet too.  They are not amateurs at their profession.
1899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 16, 2014, 11:45:16 PM
95% posters ignoring Jorge Strollfi>>BULLISH
Thanks! One more for the count of "posts about nothing but @JorgeStolfi".

Watch out @Fonzie! You are ahead, but not clear yet...

(This post counts for us both, unfortunately.) 

Cheesy
1900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 16, 2014, 11:32:31 PM
Beware that it is only 7:30 am Sunday in China.  The rise from 3100 to 3200 CNY happened in mostly after 04:00 am.   Will the late-risers confirm it, or reverse it?
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