Is one month long enough?

This one, no?

What am I asking?

I found it easier to express my feelings graphically.  (Can't remember whether I posted this on this thread already, apologies if I did):



[ click on image for full-size version ]

To me, reading discussions of Monero and other anonymous coins on this public forum feels like watching a TV class on how to dig a tunnel into a building without being caught, or how to turn off all the security cameras in a bank by hacking into its network.  Does anyone else have a vague feeling of surreality, too?

Careful with jokes... Ross Ulbricht is in deep trouble for allegedly trying to do that. 

Maybe, or bought bitcoin with the intention of using them to buy Jed's XRP, expecting a surge in the BTC price for that.  But the only argument for that explanation is the rough coincidence of the two dates.

Well, if you care for my free analysis, guaranteed to be without any warranty: I suspect that the insider info that prompted a few people to buy in May20--Jun/10, lifting the price from 440$ all the way up to 640$, has turned into disappointment; so that those same people are unloading what they bought then. 

If this theory is correct, I would expect the price to drop back to ~450$, but not much lower than that. 

The "insider info" may have been indications that the big sale of Jed's XRP would happen, and the "disappointment" would then be the agreement that prevents Jed from selling for a coupld of years. The dates seem to match.  But it could be many other things...

Prove it. 

Salesmen of bitcoin and bitcoin-based funds desperately need that claim to be believed.  No one would put their money into an asset whose value depends entirely on the mood of thousands of amateur Chinese speculators who have no use for it other than day-trading. 

Bitcoin media like Coindesk are supported by bitcoin funds and other enterprises, and therefore spread the view that those sources want to be spread -- including the view that Huobi and OKCoin are unimportant, and the price of bitcoin is determined by its "adoption" in the west.  Informing bitcoin traders about the true state of the market is not their goal.

Last December the Chinese government banned any use of cryptocurrencies, including both Bitcoin and Litecoin, except for speculative trade.

I haven't checked how the volumes are evolving, but  the largest exchanges (Huobi and OKCoin, much bigger than BTC-China and the western ones)  support both BTC/CNY and LTC/CNY.   

IIRC, Litecoin was started by Charlie Lee, brother of BTC-China's CEO Bobby Lee (who is now in the Board of Directors of The Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation).

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

... and a bunch of mechanics nerds build hundreds of copies of the Wright Bros' first flying plane and start selling them as a fabulous long-term investment, because they are obviously much better than horses, and in the future horse owners will surely pay a fortune for them ...

I meant Huobi and OKCoin.  Like an overview of the stock market that leaves out NYSE and NASDAQ, because "they are in the US so their volume is distorted".  But that has been discussed already...

... and still ignores the two elephants in the room ...

Cute map, but with those damn Teutonic plates shifting all the time, what would be the point?

Why, are there people who draw circles on charts, instead of straight lines ?

Why are the charts of last year relevant to this year?

Why would they soar higher?

Well, maybe the 2014 bubble did happen: May/20--Aug/13...

Funny,

  BTC price suddenly shoots up on May 20, after a month or relative stagnation.
  Jed announces his big Ripple sell-off on May 21.

  BTC price suddenly starts to drop on Aug/11, after a month of relative stagnation.
  Ripple announces on Aug/13 an agreement with Jed that prevents a big sell-off for 1-2 years.

Nah, it must be that conspiracy that is trying to make me think that I am paranoid.