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1182
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: March 30, 2015, 05:57:48 AM
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arrrrgh... when will bitcorn price go back to ATH ?
Doesn't this question belong in speculation?  Isnt that a valid question belong to this thread too ? Well, do you expect to get an answer here? Would Tuesday in Belgium work for you? Could that be the most gratuituous use of the word 'Belgium' (which was actually a random word substituted for another more meaningful word that was fine for British readers and listeners, but was considered unacceptable by the American editors -- a fact that I learned only many years after reading the American edition of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy) in this thread? |
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1183
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 30, 2015, 03:48:19 AM
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I could not get all the charts in the same scale for a proper comparison, but my impression is that the large sudden swings still come from the Chinese exchanges, OKCoin or perhaps Huobi. In particular, those sharp drops that are immediately reversed seem to be deeper at OKCoin than in the other exchanges. I could understand them as someone dumping a lot of BTC at OKCoin, and arbitragers then transferring those coins to the other exchanges, where they cause smaller dips. Does it make sense?
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1185
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: March 29, 2015, 08:44:24 PM
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Is anyone hungry in here? I could grab a sandwich right now.. Anyone else?
I would like a pizza please What kind of Pizza and why did you not answer with a question are you daft?? Exactly what is "a question are you daft"? For starters, just to reassure us that we can reach some consensus in this thread, can we all agree that we would like a round pizza? |
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1186
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: March 29, 2015, 07:58:39 PM
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The 1 in (200 x 1) is just a place holder for the ask volume. After looking at the other trading OTC US shares, I'm 99% sure now that we are talking about a couple thousand $ worth of bids. I apologize for excoriating you the other day. Will be interesting to hopefully see some actual trading in GBTC this week.
No sweat. The 200x was 100x before, now it is 200x surely because there are two bids with same price 35.50, each with size 100. I guess those "100" bids are just for testing or priming. The "645" bid at 31 may come from a real investor. As you say, the real trading may begin next week, after the old shareholders get their access codes or whatever. |
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1187
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: March 29, 2015, 07:41:23 PM
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Pretty sure the unit increments are .1 btc per share. So, the latest bid of 35.5 w/ 100 is effectively buying (or hoping to) 10 coins at $355 a piece
I know its 0.1 btc per share. I'm wondering whether 1 share is equal to 1 unit on the orderbook. Greyscale will only issue shares to the primary brokers in "baskets" of 100 shares, but investors must be able to trade any number of shares. The information about baskets is only a technical detail in the filing document. There is no indication on the OTCQX page that the "size" is measured in baskets. There are two hints that the unit is just 1 share: (1) a "x1" on the line "best bid"; the left number is the sum of all "sizes" with the best price. (2) the fact that the price is 31.50 not 3150.00. I have written to the OTCQX customer assistance but they did not understand the question. Maybe monday they will reply to my clarified re-question. |
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1189
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 29, 2015, 06:59:26 AM
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Approximate trading volumes at various exchanges (in million USD per week)
Exchange Vol Since
---------- --- -------
BTC-China 300 2014-12
OKCoin 250 2014-10
Huobi 150 2014-10
Bitfinex 60 2014-09
Bitstamp 20 2014-05
BTC-e 16 2014-05
The last column is the date since when that volume has been sustained, apart from short-lived spikes (notably the 2014-11-13 "three billion euro hedge fund at OKCoin" spike). Note that in all the main exchanges the volume (in USD) has been roughly constant for the last 6 months; except at BTC-China, whose volume increased substantially last November. |
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1191
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: March 28, 2015, 03:10:59 AM
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Why didn't you spotted it earlier ?
Wouldn't it be "spot"? Are you the grammar nazi? I know that it doesn't make sense, but it rhymes with "spot": wouldn't he rather be a grammar Pol Pot? Ur hoomin grammerz iz naut innaet? Don't you know how to speak plain English? Is this any way to introduce yourself? Should I violate The Rule, and question the question about human grammars instead of the question above? |
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1193
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 27, 2015, 01:37:14 PM
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I just had an idea about how to explain bitcoin: A bitcoin is real estate on the most secure public ledger in the world. Bitcoins are similar to land in that that the total amount is fixed. How much real estate? 1/21 millionth.
That is a very good analogy, except that there is no real land. A bitcoin is a bearer certificate of property of some fixed number of square miles of real estate on Tatooine. Other altcoins are certificates of real estate on other imaginary planets. The value of bitcoins is supposed to come from its hard-to-forge public land registry, where record of possession of one of those imaginary plots can be easily transferred to another person only with knowledge of the private key of its current possessor, without the need for a trusted intermediary etc. |
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1194
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 27, 2015, 04:16:40 AM
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By the way, I heard that someone invented an electronic cash protocol that, while still lacking some important features, is noteworthy because it allows instantaneous person-to-person transfers with no middlemen. Does anyone here know about it?
Yes, post an address, I'll send you some bits. It will take no time, and be just between you and me. Altogether remarkable. Seems you missed the "  " and what it refers to. |
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1195
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 27, 2015, 02:50:00 AM
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Why would anyone bid $50 for one tenth of a bitcoin while bitcoin is trading at < $250  There are no shares for sale yet; the early BIT investors who can sell them must first get the proper electronic documents, and then must decide whether to offer them for sale, and sell them to some broker, who may sell to other brokers before it gets to those "level 2" brokers. Also, those bids are from the level-2 brokers, presumably largish financial companies. 100 shares at 50.00 $/share is 5000 USD. They may pay more than that for their business cards... By the way, I heard that someone invented an electronic cash protocol that, while still lacking some important features, is noteworthy because it allows instantaneous person-to-person transfers with no middlemen. Does anyone here know about it? |
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1197
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: March 27, 2015, 12:20:15 AM
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Someone asked about short selling; perhaps this entry from the OTCQX Learn/FAQ page is relevant: Is short selling allowed for OTCQX, OTCQB and OTC Pink securities?
Yes – short selling is allowed for OTCQX, OTCQB and OTC Pink securities. You may find the short interest (amount of shares sold short) for specific securities by selecting the “Short Sale” tab within the Quote page or by going to the Short Sales Data page.
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1198
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: March 27, 2015, 12:10:59 AM
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The accredited investors that BIT has hitherto been limited to will either (a) have little difficulty understanding the structure or (b) engage the services of an investment professional to explain it to them them.
Also, bear in mind that these are regulatory legal documents you're reading - I'm sure the customer facing communications that investors receive from SecondMarket and/or Grayscale are rather more user-friendly!
AFAIK, "accredited investors" are simply people who can demonstrate to have enough money; not necessarily experienced investors. They now have to deal with a broker, and understand how the OTC work to understand why the price that they pay to the broker is neither the market price of 0.1 BTC nor the price listed on the OTCQX page... As for BIT's "customer facing communication", the samples I have seen do not seem much better. At least the financial report is supposed to spell out all the details... Anyway, good luck to the investors... |
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1199
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Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer
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on: March 26, 2015, 09:57:20 PM
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Oh boy. I imagine that the BIT investors too must be thoroughly confused by the changes. They bought shares from SecondMarket with dollars, but now they have to understand this complicated structure of 6-7 companies with 3-4 different roles if they want to trade them. They may more easily understand Satoshi's paper than the material put out by SecondMarket and Greyscale to "explain" how the fund now works... |
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1200
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 26, 2015, 09:34:44 PM
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From the 2014-09-30 financial statement on that page, I understand that now the fund is managed by Greyscale, and they no longer buy or sell bitcoins and no longer buy or sell shares for dollars (page 31+). Instead, there a 1st level broker and a few 2nd level brokers (including those 4 listed on the page). Those brokers can buy shares from Greyscale with bitcoins only, and will get bitcoins when they sell shares to Grayscale. In other words, it is now the brokers and the investors who must buy and sell the bitcoins on exchanges; Greyscale will just keep them safely until they are redeemed or stolen.
My guess is that those bids are just the 2nd level brokers testing the system, and the bids are not being filled because the only authorized sellers are the same 2nd level brokers, and they have no shares to sell. They must either buy some shares from Greyscale, or wait until some of the early BIT investors gives them their shares to sell.
I think you need to work on your reading comprehension. What did you understand from that? Just about everything you said is wrong. You are right that Greyscale is managing the fund. Everything else is wrong. Greyscale doesn't keep the Bitcoin safe, they exchange baskets of shares from the Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT). Basically, shares of GBTC are created by exchanging BIT for GBTC and destroyed by redeeming GBTC for BIT. I'm not going to explain the entire document. The creation and redemption of Baskets requires the delivery to the Trust or the distribution by the Trust of the number of bitcoins represented by the Baskets being created or redeemed. The number of bitcoins that will be required (“Basket Bitcoin Amount”) for each creation basket (“Creation Basket”) or redemption basket (“Redemption Basket”) will be determined [ ... ]
Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create and redeem Baskets. Each Authorized Participant (i) is a registered broker-dealer, (ii) has entered into a Participant Agreement with the Sponsor and the Trust, and (iii) has access to an Authorized Participant Self-Administered Account (as defined herein). The Participant Agreement provides the procedures for the creation and redemption of Baskets and for the delivery of bitcoins required for creations and redemptions. [ ... ]
Authorized Participants who make deposits of bitcoins with the Trust in exchange for Creation Baskets receive no fees, commissi ons or other form of compensation or inducement of any kind from either the Sponsor or the Trust. In particular, an Authorized Participant may profit from the “spread” (or diffe rence) between the prices at which it purchases and sells Shares and bitcoins (or obtains Shares or bitcoins through the creation and redemption of Baskets). For example, when creating Shares, an Authorized Participant may deposit bitcoins with the Trust that it has acquired at a price that is lower than the current Bitcoin Market Price and thus receive Shares with a value greater than the Authorized Participant’s cost of acquiring the deposited bitcoins.
[ ... ]
As another example, when redeeming Shares, an Authorized Participant may receive bitcoins and then hold them for later
resale at a profit if the price of bitcoins increases. The frequent and significant fluctuations in the price of bitcoins increases the
extent to which an Authorized Participant may profit from its transactions in Shares and bitcoins. As of the date of this Disclosure Statement [ September 2014 ], the only Authorized Participant is SecondMarket,Inc., an affiliate of the Sponsor. [ now apparently there are more ] [ ... ]
As of the date of this Disclosure Statement, SecondMarket, Inc. has signed a Participant Agreement with the Sponsor and the Trust and may create and redeem Baskets.
My reading still is that SecondMarket and other "Authorized Participants" have to buy bitcoins themselves in order to get shares from Greyscale. Isn t that so? EDIT: and BIT is the acronym of the officilal name of the fund (Bitcoin Investment Trust), while GBTC is the ticker symbol assigned by OTCQX for the BIT shares. There are no "GBTC shares". |
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