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1441
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2015, 08:03:20 PM
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all the previous auctions were won by newcomers.
Second market Bagholdin inc.
&
Tim Draper, CEO of Bitcoin bagholders
SecondMarket only organized syndicates of small buyers who could not afford a full 2000 BTC bid. Those small buyers (from a couple hundred BTC to 1000 BTC, IIRC) took 48'000 BTC in the second auction. I would guess that they are newcomers. Someone who bought a few thousand BTC at sub-100 prices would not care to buy a few more at 370, I would think. |
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1442
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2015, 07:57:55 PM
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... wrong, this a "Buy the news" moment, because all the psychology that you meticulously detail here with great effort has already been priced in awaiting this announcement. Only a few slow beartards traders will get caught expecting any drop ... that's all folks, next stop 2 fitty.
You assume that traders are perfectly rational. But the only rational price expectation for the bitcoin price is 0/0 = NaN. |
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1443
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 18, 2015, 07:54:55 PM
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We'r able to set up 2 questions in one ?
Do you think that "be able to" is the same as "be ethically, legally, and divinely allowed to"? Why didn't you simply answered this question? Aren't you aware of the Only Sacred Rule of this thread? |
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1445
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2015, 07:08:23 PM
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The first one caused a drop of ~70 USD on its announcement (~2014-06-11) which was reversed when it was known that one bidder had bought all the coins (~2014-06-30). The ssecond one (announced ~2014-11-17, result known ~2014-12-09) did not have any clear effect although there was a ~25 USD drop on the day before the result became known (a leak perhaps?). Auctions are good, rich dumb guys buy all the btc, they hold it, less coins in circulation, btc bagholders win long run.
It depends... Those coins are now out of the active market, whether open (exchanges) and OTC (off-exchanges). The auction will take a lot of dollars out of the pockets of people who would otherwise buy bitcoins in the market; so it will put a negative pressure on the price. If the coins are bought by long-term hoders, the effect will not be immediate; simply there will be less money around in the following onths. If the winners are short-term speculators, the drop may be immediate as they offer the coins for sale. (On the other hand, perhaps there are people who are not buying BTC now because they hope to get a better deal at the auction. If they do not win the auction, perhaps they will start buying from the market.) |
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1446
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2015, 06:43:41 PM
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CNN: Breaking the bank: Bitcoins hit Africa's money transfer traditions http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/17/business/bitcoin-africa-unbanked/Transferring cash via a bank or a Money Transfer Operator (MTOs) like Western Union or MoneyGram can be costly. According to the Overseas Development Institute, the average charge to transfer $200 to Africa using traditional money transfer services is 12%. If you send $200, you pay $24. The ODI added up all the transfers that happen in a year, and found remittance fees cost the African continent $1.8 billion a year.
What if that money could be spent on things, rather than fees?
As Bitcoin is a virtual peer-to-peer currency -- designed to operate on the border-less internet -- the costs of transferring money can be radically cheaper than traditional methods, and the process is much quicker.
"Bitcoin can greatly alter the remittances industry and beyond," says Michael Kimani, who heads the African Digital Currency Association, a Kenya-based group launched last May to promote digital currency technologies. "From seven days [for a transaction to clear] using banks & PayPal, down to 20 minutes speaks volumes." A laudable intention, and I hope that international payments and remittances will be much, much cheaper in the future. However, bitcoin as a remittance mechanism has a problem: it does not actually send dollars to the Zimberians, it only shuffles Zimberian patacas among Zimberians. This is what happens then: https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2vypy9/if_i_was_looking_to_sell_big_or_relatively_big/Hi guys, I'm from a Bitcoin startup in the Philippines [ReBit] and we have services that range from payment processing, remittance, prepaid cards, and even new order book exchange.
Our business has been growing steadily and we've found ourselves needing to trade out big amounts of BTC for fiat on a consistent basis daily, which we have so far been able to do using our own contacts. Increasing volumes of incoming BTC is making it harder and harder though. [ ... ] Some comments on that from the premier Skeptic Tank: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2w1f4g/rebit_having_problems_finding_bagholders_in_the/ |
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1447
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 17, 2015, 08:02:31 PM
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Neo & Bee too got a hearing at the Cypriot Parliament just before collapsing. I don't recall whether Danny had already left the country by then, but he sent some minor employee to represent the company, and the hearing was a flop. Soon afterwards the Central Bank of Cyprus denied Neo's banking license.
Is this something that actually happened or some kind of sarcastic jibe? Serious question, I kind of wrote neo&bee off when that rather detailed render was making the rounds, purporting to be their soon-to-open offices. It really happened, see it mentioned here: http://dcmagnates.com/cysec-issues-its-own-warning-about-bitcoins-after-parliament-discussion/That article is from March 20. I can't find the date when Danny left Cyprus, but it was sometime at the end of march. (Why can't those toe-sucking bitcoin reporters put DATES of events on their articles? Always "recently", " few days ago", ...) |
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1448
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 17, 2015, 07:12:21 PM
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They have also been an integral part in attempting to have BTC regulations that would not slow adoption and promote growth by participating in the Canadian Bitcoin senate hearings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mMNeo & Bee too got a hearing at the Cypriot Parliament just before collapsing. I don't recall whether Danny had already left the country by then, but he sent some minor employee to represent the company, and the hearing was a flop. Soon afterwards the Central Bank of Cyprus denied Neo's banking license. EDIT: by the way, so far CAVirtex only promised to return all the clients BTC, but withdrawals were blocked. Clients must provide new withdrawal addresses, and then CAVirtex will send the BTC there. Now I will believe it only after they do it. |
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1453
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: February 17, 2015, 05:03:36 PM
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[ ... ] mussel [ ... ]?
Sell? SELL? SELL? Do you really mus' sell? Have you sold your soul ? Why are you asking? Why are you asking that I am asking a question if im free to ask questions as far as im concerned since im not living under the NK regime? Are you sure you want to live under NK regime ? It is the South Koreans who live under the NK regime; haven't you checked where they are on the map? |
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1454
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 17, 2015, 04:52:03 PM
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Cavirtex decided to close its bitcoin exchange and get out of the bitcoin business: https://cavirtex.com/newsFeb. 17, 2015, 12:12 p.m. - CAVIRTEX shutting down
Effective immediately, CAVIRTEX intends to cease carrying on an active Bitcoin business and will be winding down its operations in an orderly manner. As a result, effective immediately, no new deposits will be accepted by CAVIRTEX. Trading on CAVIRTEX will be halted effective March 20, 2015. Effective March 25th, 2015, no withdrawals will be processed. CAVIRTEX will communicate with any account holders that continue to hold balances after March 25, 2015.
We have maintained 100% reserves. CAVIRTEX is solvent and remains in a position to accommodate all customer withdrawal requests received prior to March 25, 2015. However, On February 15, 2015 we found reason to believe that an older version of our database, including 2FA secrets and hashed passwords, may have been compromised. This database did not include identification documents.
Because security and the safety of customer funds are paramount to our mission and the success of Bitcoin in general, CAVIRTEX has determined to cease active operations in the Bitcoin business and to return all customer funds. We believe that the damage to the company's reputation caused by the potential compromise will significantly harm our ability to continue to operate successfully.
[ ... ]
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1456
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How Many Bitcoiners are Mentally Ill?
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on: February 17, 2015, 04:16:20 PM
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Speaking as an American here, ask yourself, reader, why are we as a society so terrified of disobedience, but not at all fearful of obedience?
I blame fluoridated water, high fructose corn syrup, chemtrails, and Obama. The generation that grew up watching The Simpsons for 20 years now thinks that stupidity is fun and cool. That explains why the Republicans, after G. W. Bush, were divided between Palin, Santorum, and Romney. It is not a coincidence that The Simpsons are on Fox (and are Fox's most popular program). |
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1458
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 17, 2015, 12:26:51 AM
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So...bitcoin is fungible? Great!
Of course it is(*). Any bitcoin has the same market value as any other bitcoin. However, bitcoiners seem to attach the wrong meaning to that word. It does not mean "you need not worry about where your bitcoins came from". Receiving 1000 bitcoins from Silk Road via a tumbler and BitPay is quite different from receiving 1000 bitcoins from the USMS. Not because the bitcoins are different, but because of what you may have done to get them. (*) Actually bitcoins are not entirely fungible, because the transaction fees depend on how long the bitcoins have been sitting still. Therefore, some bitcoins are worth slightly more than others, because they will pay smaller fees to get the same priority. (I did not read the whole fee algorithm yet. I have been told that it depends also on the number of bytes of the transaction, on the third letter of the address, on phase of the Moon, on the temperature of blockchain, and on the number of handshakes that separate the owner from Satoshi Nakamoto. I imagine that PayPal and VISA will want to adopt these rules too.) |
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1459
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 16, 2015, 08:43:00 PM
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if you are going to compare Bitcoin to a useless fad that became collectible you could sort of compare it to baseball cards.
A fair enough comparison which nevertheless overlooks one crucial point: the utility of Bitcoin technology is orders of magnitude greater than the utility of baseball cards. The analogy also fails in another way. Beanie babies and baseball cards were not fungible, and each "species" had its own sentimental/aesthetic/historical value. That is what made (and makes) those things suitable collectors items. Bitcoins, however, are fungible and invisible; if they were to lose their financial value, no one would want to buy them as colectibles. (Before the first USMS aution, some people speculated that those ~30'000 bitcoins would be worth more than ordinary bitcoins in the future; both for having been "blessed" by the US government, and for their historical value, having been through SilkRoad and its takedown. But no one mentions that now. The "collectors overprice" of those bitcoins now must be the same as that of the the dollars that once were in Al Capone's bank account: none at all...) |
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