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1741
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Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner
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on: January 21, 2015, 06:12:43 PM
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So you use the address-based data to draw conclusion on users. Can you share the methodology?
(If you can express the method in a limited text of plain English, I can feed it to my distribution generator and get results.)
My observation is that the address-based data closely mirrors the Mtgox leak of user data which is the basis of your estimate. For example, according to your estimate, there are ~70 users with 10,000 bitcoins or more. If you look at the pure address data, there are ~94 addresses with more than 10,000 bitcoins. Roughly 15,000 addresses have 100 or more bitcoins according to the pure address data. This is roughly the same as in your estimate. The same goes for the other categories. So although these addresses do not correspond to individual users, we nevertheless find that the distribution of addresses mirrors the distribution of users. I cannot explain why this is the case, but it is the case. I cannot prove it, but It's my guess that if bitcoins are being more concentrated among top addresses, then they are also being concentrated among top users. It's probably not appropriate to readjust your estimates based on this guess. I would expect a connection like that. While there are certainly many exceptions, a person who has N bitcoins in total should have at least one address that contains a significant fraction of those N bitcoins. For example, a person who has 10 BTC will probably have at least one address with 1 BTC in it. There are many users who leave most of their BTC in Coinbase, Circle, or some exchange, and some users who split their coins into hundreds of small addresses; they will be undercounted by this method. On the other hand, there are many users who own two or more addresses with significant balances; they will be overcounted. @Jehst's comparison suggests that the two errors are not too large, and/or they mostly cancel each other. |
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1742
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: January 21, 2015, 05:30:53 PM
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Such typical male arrogance, look what you have done stolfie  ? And if you are calling out male arrogance, would you be implying yourself to be a female? Sant i imply myself to be gentlemen ? Did you know that questions in this thread are allowed to be moot, rhetorical, or... even sarcastic? |
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1743
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL fucked us over again
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on: January 21, 2015, 02:49:50 PM
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Edited for brevity:
Defendants Sonny and Drake similar denials of any wrong doing:
Do they plan to show that Mark Marie Robert Karpelès was running BFL, too? |
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1744
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: January 21, 2015, 02:45:54 PM
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Do you guys realize? that i was the one before who started this epic by questioning 'the best psychopath's movie' and even right now!, because of whom you are addicted to this tread.  Do you realize Shrishti is the name of a woman ? And just like a woman you are trying to seek attention ? Oh please ..m a female alryt, didnt you see it in my profile before asking such a stupid question?  So you think you are that important that everyone will check your profile before communicating with you ? What are you a teenager or something ? No but cant you really now check my profile before even questioning i am a teen? Why?..why cant u just? But how could you possibly teach Paul Krugman economics, laugh at Warren Buffett's competence in business, or even undestand what "CCMF" means, without the full intelligence of a twenty-something MALE php programmer? |
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1745
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: January 21, 2015, 01:30:15 PM
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Do you guys realize? that i was the one before who started this epic by questioning 'the best psychopath's movie' and even right now!, because of whom you are addicted to this tread. Do you realize Shrishti is the name of a woman ? And just like a woman you are trying to seek attention ? so what if he is a woman ? since when has that been a problem on the internet, right ? OK for the internet, but is it true then that there are women in bitcoin? |
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1746
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question.
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on: January 21, 2015, 07:42:19 AM
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Do you guys realize? that i was the one before who started this epic by questioning 'the best psychopath's movie' and even right now!, because of whom you are addicted to this tread. Why can't you ask questions, like everybody has to do here? |
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1748
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 21, 2015, 06:19:31 AM
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BTW, richest Chinese billionaire Lee Ka Shing invested real money into Bitcoin companies, why no one mentioned this?
I didn't see that, but I saw this post by @Walsoraj: Chinese famous finance investor Duan Hongbin（端宏斌） said that he has selt out all of his bitcoin by his official weibo and invest all money in chinese a stock and Hongkong stock. Some Chinese tweets reveal that not only exchanges are doing insider trading, but they are also hiring writers to post all sorts or bashing and trolling articles to manipulate the price.
Methinks that them dumping their coins by the tens of thousands had a lot more effect on price than any amount of "FUD" posted to forums. How many coins did I convince you to sell yet? |
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1749
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 21, 2015, 04:26:01 AM
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Tell us again how in your view Vikram Pandit is stupid and ill-informed.
How many bitcoins did he buy? I have no way of knowing that but I am quite certain he did not invest in Coinbase while expecting BTC to tank. Indeed, it is puzzling why Coinbase, of all bitcon companies, is getting so much investment. Perhaps it is going to be more than just a bitcoin payment processor? By the way, tell us again how in your view Warren Buffett is stupid and ill-informed. Also by the way: I still would not dare to guess what will happen to the price of bitcoin in the medium term. There may be another market opening, or there may not be. How would I know? |
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1753
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 20, 2015, 11:41:06 PM
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But you must know better than the people over at NYSE, Citigroup, BBVA, USAA and NTT. After all, you are a Sr. Member now.
My ego is bursting. How many of you have a personal troll? Fonsie, is that you? I seem to recognize the personality and the peculiar obsession (not to mention the bizarre idea of creating an account that is a poor parody of a "troll" account). |
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1754
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 20, 2015, 09:07:58 PM
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So, what I gather is that some big banks practically opened up some accounts for Coinbase with a sum of 75M USD-IOU credit limit.
Perhaps, but that is not what I understand by "invest". I suppose that they bought equity (~stocks) of Coinbase. Coinbase will spend that money on something and they will get a slice of the profits. What will Coinbase do with all that money, I wonder? Perhaps deploy a few thousand ATMs? |
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1756
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 20, 2015, 06:01:56 PM
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Certainly not because bitcoin is undervalued jorge! You are hilarious.
Well, I find hilarious all those bitcoin experts who last May predicted 10'000 USD/BTC or more (way more) for Jan/2015. (And who now are saying that "the price does not matter, what matters is the technology".) You know, I am actually glad to be totally ignorant about bitcoin. |
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1757
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 20, 2015, 05:31:42 PM
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Explain to me how Coinbase is profitable while it is now valued at 12% of the total market cap of BTC?
Without the underlying asset increasing dramatically in value, how do the NYSE investors see ROI?
AFAIK, Coinbase does not invest in bitcoin either. Their profit does not depend on the price of bitcoin, but on how much USD they process. I would guess (just guess) that they are valued so much because they plan to become a competitor to PayPal (including dollar-to-dollar payments rather than just bitcoin-to-dollar like BitPay). |
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1760
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
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on: January 20, 2015, 08:42:02 AM
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* Finally, one of them claimed that, if the cartel decided to do that, the, rather than accept a small compatible change to the protocol, surely all users would make a big incompatible change to the protocol, alienate all the miners, and go back to the network of 2010. And closed the discussion with "QED".
That was not the argument that proved your scenario unworkable. Maybe we need three of four posts before you read it, rather than throwing up a straw man and ignoring that your scenario fails. We were down to discussing the "Red Button" solution. Wasn't that your argument? Also the change you claim (incorrectly) users would accept is not a "small compatible change," it requires users to accept a hard fork. That's not compatible and its not small. Its perhaps the only thing that would indeed make another hard fork clearly (as) viable -- since users would simply be choosing between one hard fork or another.
Whether the users would accept it or not is a matter of belief, and clearly we have vastly different views about the mindset of the bitcoin community. What we can discuss objectively is what are their choices and the respective gains/losses. Yes, either change in the protocol would require everybody to upgrade their client software, and recompile private software with upgraded libraries and/or parameters. Like other hard forks in the past, and hard forks that will surely be necessary in the future, cartel or no cartel. But the Red Button fork is way more radical than the cartel's. Moreover, after the cartel's fork, only one branch will be viable, so most users will upgrade to it, and the price may not suffer; whereas the Red Button fork will result in two functioning "bitcoins", so the price will be split among them. |
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